MCD Stock Heads For Second Day In Green Ahead Of Q4 Earnings: Can Value Deals And Loyalty Drive Another Beat?

• Shares of McDonald’s have gained nearly 7% so far this year, building on the 8% jump witnessed in 2025.
• BTIG noted that the firm's franchise checks suggest changes to the value and promotions strategy are driving traffic growth on a consistent basis.
• McDonald’s is seeing a boost from its value meal offerings, which have helped the company rebuild traffic numbers.

McDonald’s shares were up marginally during premarket trading as investors keenly await the burger chain’s fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, which would give insights into customer traffic to its stores and the restaurant industry’s performance as a whole.

Shares of McDonald’s have gained nearly 7% so far this year, building on the 8% jump in 2025, as its value meals and promotions to keep customers on board helped drive sales growth.

 The company’s stock shrugged off concerns about a slowdown in the restaurant industry, as noted by McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski.

Wall Street Turns More Constructive 

Last week, Mizuho raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $325 from $300 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares, according to TheFly. The firm said the price target increase reflected upside in the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter results. However, upside to 2026 estimates is "not a given,” Mizuho added.

BTIG analyst Peter Saleh also upgraded McDonald's to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and noted that the firm's franchise checks suggest changes to the value and promotions strategy are driving traffic growth on a consistent basis.

The firm said it expects the change in value strategy and perception to lead to the most meaningful earnings growth for the company since 2023. It is also encouraging that the new CosMc's beverage platform will launch in the first half of this year and provide the next major catalyst for U.S. same-store sales and transactions, Saleh said.

McDonald’s Earnings Preview

McDonald’s revenue is expected to grow 7% to $6.83 billion, and earnings per share are estimated to be $3.05, compared to $2.83 from a year ago, according to data from Fiscal AI. The company is expected to post results after the markets close on Wednesday.

Placer.ai said that McDonald’s ended 2025 with clear visit momentum, reversing earlier softness and posting steady gains in the back half of the year. “McDonald’s traffic grew between October and December, perhaps spurred by its loyalty program,” the report by Placer.ai read.

The data showed that visits from high-frequency diners grew the most in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024 and the second half of 2019. The firm said that this points to a core benefit of loyalty-led growth: driving incremental visits from existing customers is typically far more efficient than acquiring new ones.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on McDonald’s jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

Shares of McDonald’s have gained nearly 6% in the last 12 months.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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