MRNA Stock Eyes Best Year Ever: Analyst Calls China’s AI Drug Lead ‘Baseless’ As Moderna Awaits Cancer Data

• Laidlaw analyst Yale Jen called claims that China is overtaking the U.S. in AI-driven drug development “baseless.”
• Jen said the U.S. may still have an edge, but argued that successful drugs and diagnostics matter more than the number of partner deals.
• He said detailed results from Moderna and Merck’s Phase 3 melanoma trial could be the next catalyst for MRNA shares.

Shares of Moderna (MRNA) are on track for their best year on record as investors await detailed melanoma trial results, while an analyst said that China leads the U.S. in AI-driven drug development lack credible evidence.

Over the past year, the U.S.-focused SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) gained 62%, while the Global X China Biotech ETF (2820) fell 7%. The broader Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 29%, compared with a 6% decline for the KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care Index ETF (KURE).

Analyst Calls China’s AI Drug Lead Claim ‘Baseless’

“Together, we view the statement that China is pulling ahead of the U.S. in AI-driven drug development would be baseless given no credible supportive evidence even suggests that could be the trend,” Yale Jen, a healthcare equity analyst and senior managing director at Laidlaw, told Stocktwits in an exclusive interview.

Jen said companies in both countries are competitive, but that “the U.S. as a whole, may still have a leg up.” He pointed to more U.S. AI-associated drug programs in Phase 3 development than Chinese ones, while cautioning that reaching a late-stage trial does not guarantee success.

He argued that partner deals are one measure of activity, but the stronger test is whether companies develop commercially viable treatments or diagnostics. “The number of deals with partners is important but, we believe the success rate and the number of drugs being successfully developed would be more critical in judging the value or ranking of a company,” Jen said.

Trump-Xi Talks Put AI Race In Focus

Jen’s comments come as Washington and Beijing’s broader AI competition draws fresh attention. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the tech during last week’s summit, against a backdrop of U.S. semiconductor export controls that China says constrain its companies.

Bloomberg Intelligence separately said its China Tech 8 index traded at a discount of more than 50% to the Magnificent Seven U.S. tech stocks. The firm said clearer domestic AI advances could help Chinese tech shares close that valuation gap.

What Comes After Moderna’s Record Rally?

MRNA shares closed Friday at $198.88, up about 574% this year and already ahead of their 434% gain in 2020, the stock’s previous best calendar year. 

Jen pointed to detailed results from the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma trial as the next event that could move the shares. The study tested Intismeran, a personalized mRNA therapy developed by Moderna and Merck (MRK), in combination with Merck’s Keytruda in patients whose high-risk melanoma had been surgically removed.

The companies said last month that the combination improved recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival compared with Keytruda alone. They have not yet released the detailed Phase 3 efficacy figures, and the trial is continuing to assess other outcomes, including overall survival. 

“The actual figure of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) could potentially have a positive impact on the shares,” Jen said. He suggested presenting the results at a meeting of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) or the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC).

Additionally, Jen flagged potential topline results in renal cell carcinoma and muscle-invasive bladder cancer in 2027, followed by possible data in non-small cell lung cancer in 2027 or 2028. Strong results across additional cancers could begin to show how broadly the treatment might be used, he said. Merck and Moderna’s INTerpath program spans nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies across multiple tumor types.

Moderna's Personalized Cancer Therapy Faces Scale Test

Jen said intismeran could face commercial hurdles even if its clinical results remain strong. Tailoring the therapy to each patient’s tumor may be costly and time-consuming, while broader use could strain manufacturing capacity. The price of combining it with Keytruda could also affect insurance reimbursement, he said.

“Overall, the clinical efficacy and safety still dictate the commercial outlook of such a combination,” Jen said. He identified Moderna’s flu and cancer vaccine programs as its biggest potential opportunities beyond COVID.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About MRNA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MRNA jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a week ago amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user called Moderna an “AI driven drug empire. Multi-franchise oncology powerhouse.”

Another user expects “plenty of good news” till the end of 2027, and added: “Not easy to short it, the company is in a totally different mood than a year go. Extremely bullish”

MRNA stock has surged 708% over the past 12 months. 

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