MRNA Stock Jumps 14% Past $150 As Wolfe Sees $9.2B Cancer-Vaccine Opportunity

• Wolfe Research upgraded Moderna to Peer Perform from Underperform, offering no new price target.
• The firm said the positive melanoma trial de-risks the intismeran platform and creates a much clearer path for Moderna and Merck to seek approval in adjuvant melanoma.
• Moderna has spent the past year shifting attention toward oncology and other new areas while its original vaccine business faces ongoing competitive pressure.

Shares of Moderna (MRNA) closed 14% higher on Tuesday, climbing back above $150, amid renewed optimism around its cancer vaccine program, buoyed by Wolfe Research’s $9.2 billion peak sales estimate.

Positive Trial Results Spark Momentum

The optimism began last week after Moderna and its partner, Merck, reported that their personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, met key goals in a late-stage study for high-risk melanoma. The results showed the treatment helped patients stay free of cancer recurrence and reduced the risk of the disease spreading to distant parts of the body. Investors viewed the data as a major step forward for Moderna’s broader efforts in oncology, lifting shares steadily through the middle of the week.

The shares closed at $174.38 on Wednesday following the company update. However, the stock has been closing below $150 every day since then until Tuesday.

Analyst Upgrade Adds Fresh Fuel

On Tuesday, Wolfe Research upgraded Moderna to Peer Perform from Underperform, offering no new price target. The firm said the positive melanoma trial de-risks the intismeran platform and creates a much clearer path for Moderna and Merck to seek approval in adjuvant melanoma. Wolfe also noted that the success raises the chances of positive outcomes in the drug’s other late-stage studies. Moderna is also studying intismeran in several other cancers, primarily non-small cell lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma and bladder cancer.

The analyst estimates unadjusted peak sales across intismeran’s four main indications at $9.2 billion. The upgrade reinforced the view that Moderna’s cancer pipeline is becoming more credible after years of focus on its COVID-19 vaccine.

Building Confidence In The Pipeline

Moderna has spent the past year shifting its focus toward oncology and other new areas, while its original vaccine business faces ongoing competitive pressure. The melanoma data and the subsequent analyst support have helped restore some of that confidence.

Shares, however, remain well below their pandemic-era peaks of near $500 reached in 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 vaccine boom.

How Did MRNA Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MRNA stock remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory at the time of writing, while message volume was at ‘extremely high’ levels.

A Stocktwits user expressed optimism that the stock will rally further to over $250.

Another user voiced optimism that Moderna’s vaccine could help cancer patients beyond melanoma.

A third user, however, raised concerns about upcoming dilution when the company raises money.

MRNA stock has gained more than 400% year-to-date. 

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