Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Signal Firm Start To Week Despite Government Shutdown — Strategist Sees 8% Q4 Gain

U.S. stock futures ticked up late Sunday, signaling a positive start for Wall Street stocks ahead of the fresh trading week. The government shutdown is entering a new week, as lawmakers have yet to find common ground on a funding deal, triggering fears of massive layoffs.

According to Polymarket, the odds of the shutdown persisting until Oct. 15 or beyond are at 70%. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, fund manager Louis Navellier expects the S&P 500 to surge 8% in the fourth quarter, recording an impressive year-end rally. He called his forecast conservative, given that the S&P 500 earnings growth is at over 8%. Citing expectations for strong earnings growth and the likelihood of additional rate cuts, the strategist forecasts the index to rise by 18% in 2026.

As of 11 p.m. ET on Sunday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.25% and 0.36%, respectively, while the Dow and Russell 2000 futures rose 0.18% and 0.25%, respectively.

The major averages finished the week ended Oct. 3 solidly higher as traders shrugged off the implications of the government shutdown. President Donald Trump’s deal with Pfizer (PFE) to lower drug prices and the launch of the TrumpRx website to buy prescription drugs from pharma companies at discounted prices, and continued strength in artificial intelligence (AI) trades lent support to the market, with all the major averages on a record run through the week, althout the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished the week just shy off its record high.

For the week, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 Index, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rose 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) and the Shares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 1.1% and 1.9%, respectively.

With the federal shutdown in place, the government's economic data would be delayed yet again. Traders, however, will have to contend with a slew of Federal Reserve speeches, including one by the central bank chief, Jerome Powell. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment data for October is also due this week.

On Monday, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will make a public appearance after the market closes (5 p.m. ET). Constellation Brands (STZ) is scheduled to release its quarterly results after the market closes.

Crude oil futures rose in Asian trading as OPEC+ nations increased their output quota by a less-than-expected amount. Gold futures are on a roll, with the yellow metal hitting a fresh high and closing in on the $4,000 level. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed in Asian hours, and the U.S. dollar rose against most of its major counterparts.

Major Asian markets that remained open for trading were mixed on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 average rallying over 4.50% to a fresh record. The domestic market received a boost from the election of pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi, who emerged victorious in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Japan. The Hong Kong, Australian, and New Zealand markets, however, retreated. The Chinese, Taiwanese, and South Korean markets remained closed for public holidays.

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