Nifty Regains 25,200: Breakout Holds Promise If Sustained Above 25,250, Say SEBI RAs

Indian markets ended higher on Wednesday, with the Nifty index reclaiming the 25,200 level. 

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the index closed above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 25,183. This level had acted as a ceiling since the gap-down breakdown on July 11. Wednesday’s candle closed well above the previous highs, forming a bullish bar with rising volume, indicating renewed strength at lower levels. However, follow-through action above the 25,250–25,300 zone is essential for continuation, he added.

Chandel identified immediate resistance at 25,250 and 25,300, with upside targets of 25,350, followed by 25,500 (a Gap fill zone). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 25,100, followed by 25,000. A major support zone lies between 24,800 and 24,500.

Derivatives data shows that the 25,200 zone is getting crowded on both (Put and Call) sides. A clean move above 25,250 could trigger fresh long build-up toward 25,350 and higher. Meanwhile, 25,000 remains a sacrosanct support level; a break below it opens it up to declines until 24,800–24,500.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above 51 shows a positive crossover with room for more upside. Additionally, India’s Volatility Index (VIX) stands at 10.5, which is the lowest in 15 months, indicating that traders are not currently pricing in significant volatility.

Chandel concluded that Wednesday’s breakout was technical and backed by volume. But a close above 25,250–25,300 will be the key for further strength toward 25,400–25,500. On the downside, 25,000 remains as the psychological & structural level to defend. The structure remains buy-on-dip as long as the 25,000–24,800 zone is held.

He is moderately bullish on the markets, provided the Nifty index sustains above 25,250. He cautioned traders to watch for sharp moves, particularly in areas with high open interest concentration, given the upcoming expiry session.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services highlighted that ahead of the expiry session on Thursday, market sentiment appeared to be turning positive, as is reflected in the open interest (OI) data. Positionally, if the Nifty can sustain above the 20-day EMA or the 25,200 mark, the possibility of the index testing the 25,400 target is higher. 

Sharma added that a failure to hold above 25,200 could result in a muted expiry with only a minor correction. Heavy retracements on the downside are unlikely as the index has repeatedly tested and held the 25,000 support, along with a recovery to higher levels. 

For intraday trade on Thursday, he identified immediate support at 25,180. Should this level be breached on the downside, then the index can fall to 25,150, 25,100, 25,060, and 25,000 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 25,250. A break above this level would open the path toward 25,320 and subsequently 25,400 and beyond.

Currently, at-the-money (ATM) straddle premiums remain unusually low. And Call options have consistently traded at a premium compared to puts in the last few days, an imbalance that could introduce volatility, or a potential glitch, around expiry. The OI data also confirms that Wednesday’s session was led by short covering. Hence, Sharma cautions traders to be cautious as we could see a directional advance or a subdued session.

And analyst Prabhat Mittal identified Nifty support at 25,100, with resistance at 25,400. For the Bank Nifty, he sees support at 56,800, with resistance at 57,600.

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