Nifty Surges Past Key Resistance: SEBI RAs See Bullish Momentum Ahead Of Expiry

Indian equity markets gained for the second consecutive session, with the Nifty ending above 25,200 on Wednesday, marking its highest close in nearly 9 months. 

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the index is now decisively above its previous consolidation range of 24,500–25,200, suggesting a firm breakout with momentum on its side. 

He adds that the price action confirms a bullish breakout above the crucial 25,200 mark. 

Chandel pegged immediate resistance near 25,300–25,350, and a breakout above this range could open the gates toward 25,500 in the short term. He adds that the support now shifts higher to 25,000, which also aligns with the breakout zone. It will be crucial to hold this level to maintain the bullish structure. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to rise, currently at 60.94, indicating healthy momentum without being overbought. Meanwhile, the volatility indicator, India VIX, dropped to a three-month low. 

Chandel highlighted that, according to derivatives data, there was fresh Put writing at 25,200 and Call writing at 25,250 and 25,300, suggesting 25,200 as a strong support zone for expiry day. 

For Thursday’s trading session, he believes that if the Nifty sustains above 25,200, bulls may push the index towards 25,300–25,350. A breakout above 25,350 can lead to an accelerated move toward 25,500. 

On the downside, 25,100–25,000 is now the critical support zone. And any dip towards this range could offer buying opportunities if supported by volume and price action confirmation. He cautioned that volatility may spike with the expiry day ahead. So traders should focus on levels and avoid aggressive trades unless a clear directional bias emerges. Option writers are likely to stay active near 25,200–25,300, Chandel added. 

SEBI-registered analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that market sentiment appears positive as it heads into a monthly expiry session on Thursday. The market is positioned comfortably above the ‘box’, but he advised traders not to take intraday positions lightly, as volatility can still rise. From a positional perspective, Sharma expects the market to reach an all-time high (ATH).

For intraday setup, options premiums are low, with at-the-money (ATM) straddles around 110-120 points ahead of expiry. This indicates that the market may remain slow and rangebound unless a significant trigger emerges. 

Sharma sees immediate support at the 20-day EMA on a 15-minute timeframe at 25,230. If Nifty slips below this level, he sees a short collapse until 25,180-25,170, which aligns with the 50-day EMA. A further breach can lead the index to 25,100 and 25,000, respectively.

On the upside, Sharma pegged immediate resistance at 25,260, with a next target at 25,330 (representing a previous peak resistance ) and above. The likelihood of testing 25,330 is low, and a reversal from these levels is possible, according to him. 

However, if the Nifty index breaches 25,330, a sharp upmove is likely, driven by short covering. Overall, the market is set for a muted expiry session, a view that is supported by open interest data as well, Sharma observed.

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