Nifty In Consolidation Zone: SEBI RAs Warn Of Momentum Selling If 24,500 Breaks

The Nifty ended lower for the third consecutive session, closing below 24,600 on Tuesday. The index slipped below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time in over a month. 

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel notes that the closing just above the 24,500 support signals buyers are still defending key levels, but the mood is cautious. 

He highlighted that the Nifty continues consolidating in the 24,500–25,000 range. 

Technical indicators reinforce the caution: the Relative Strength Index at 50.6 has turned flat with a negative bias, and MACD continues its bearish crossover with declining momentum. 

Chandel sees immediate support at 24,500, adding that a breakdown below this opens the gate to 24,380–24,400, a critical demand zone. If this zone breaks, he expects momentum selling. 

On the upside, Chandel sees 24,600–24,650 and 24,800 as resistance zones. He believes these levels must be reclaimed for any bullish reversal attempt. 

Chandel observed that the India Volatility Index (VIX) remained stable despite the price dip, suggesting that this correction is more rotational than panic-driven. The larger higher high–higher low structure remains intact, indicating that this could be a healthy breather within a longer-term uptrend. 

F&O data supports a range-bound outlook for the week between 24,000 and 25,000. Significant Put writing at 24,550 and 24,600 indicates that bulls are still not giving up easily. 

Chandel’s strategy for traders is to adopt a wait-and-watch mode as option premiums remain high and directional conviction is weak. Until the Nifty moves decisively above 24,800 or breaks down below 24,500, sideways movement is likely, making position sizing and risk control crucial.

Analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services echoed a similar view. He noted that the uptrend line and 20-day EMA were breached on the daily chart, leaving 24,500 as the price action support.

If Nifty continues its downtrend, he sees the index correcting to its 50-day EMA at 24,200, followed by 24,000 in the short term. However, if it reclaims the 20-day EMA, a recovery could be possible.

For intra-day trading, Sharma sees 24,500 as immediate support — which, if breached, can lead to a fall till 24,440-24,380-24,300-24,200. On the upside, 24,580 will play as immediate resistance, and a move above this can take the Nifty to 24,660-24,730-24,800 and above.

Analyst Dipak Takodara sees immediate resistance on the upper boundary of the consolidation zone between 25,100 and 25,150. Should the Nifty close above it, the next resistance is 25,200- 25,250, followed by 25,650-25,750. 

On the downside, Takodara pegs support at the lower boundary of the consolidation zone of 24,450-24,500. Additional support is seen at 24,350-24,400, followed by 24,000 -24,050, which aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. 

Takodara believes that as long as the Nifty trades between 24,450 and 24,500 and 25,100 and 25,250, it will likely remain rangebound. If the index breaks above 25,100- 25,250, it could see a rally till 25,650-25,750, while a breakdown below 24,450-24,500 could lead to a decline towards 24,350-24,400.

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