Nio Stock At 4-Month High As Wall Street Backs 2026 Growth Story — Retail Bulls Bet On $6 Breakout

• HSBC upgraded Nio to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a $6.80 target, implying about 16% upside.
• Nio posted its first profitable quarter, reporting 34.65 billion yuan ($4.95 billion) in revenue and adjusted EPS of 0.29 yuan.
• Stocktwits sentiment is ‘extremely bullish’ and a poll showed that 62% of users expect the stock to break above $6.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) climbed to a four-month high on Friday after a string of Wall Street upgrades strengthened the EV maker’s 2026 growth narrative, while retail traders increasingly bet the stock could break above the $6 level.

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has risen nearly 20% following the release of its first quarterly profit report, ending Friday up nearly 6% at $5.86. On Monday, the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares jumped nearly 5%. 

Wall Street Turns More Bullish

HSBC upgraded Nio to 'Buy' from 'Hold' and raised its price target to $6.8 from $4.8, implying a 16% upside from the stock’s last close. The firm cited improving earnings visibility and said it has “stronger conviction” in Nio’s 2026 volume growth and earnings improvement trajectory following the fourth-quarter (Q4) report. 

HSBC added that new models and expansion of the company’s core portfolio, particularly the ES8, could support delivery growth, improve product mix and drive margin expansion, while strong order momentum across the lineup will support future volumes.

Nomura also upgraded Nio to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a price target of $6.6, implying a 13% upside from current levels. The firm said the company’s business and financial performance have improved over the past two quarters and that Nio appears to be entering a healthier business cycle. While Nomura lowered its shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027, it still expects about 25% compound annual growth in shipments between 2025 and 2028.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Securities (BofA) raised its price target to $6.7 from $6.3 and reiterated a 'Neutral' rating, implying a 14% upside from the stock’s last close. The brokerage pointed to Nio’s strong model pipeline and operating expense discipline, though it said these positives are partly offset by sector headwinds, including lower EV purchase subsidies and cost inflation expected in 2026.

First Profitable Quarter

As part of its first-ever quarterly profit report, Nio reported revenue of 34.65 billion yuan ($4.95 billion), topping estimates of 33.25 billion yuan, while adjusted earnings came in at 0.29 yuan per share, well above the 0.05 yuan consensus.

Vehicle deliveries totaled 124,807 units in Q4, up 72% year over year. For the full year, deliveries rose 47% to 326,028 vehicles, while revenue increased 33.1% to 87.49 billion yuan.

The company expects first-quarter deliveries of 80,000 to 83,000 vehicles, representing 90% to 97% growth over the previous year, with revenue forecast at 24.48 billion to 25.18 billion yuan, above the 23.3 billion yuan consensus.

Retail Traders Eye $6 Breakout

Retail traders are also turning more bullish after the earnings report and heavy trading activity in the stock, pushed by the optimism on Wall Street. Sentiment on Stocktwits shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ over the past week from the ‘neutral’ zone a month ago amid a 121% surge in 24-hour message volumes. 

A poll conducted by Stocktwits showed 62% of respondents expect Nio to break above $6, while 20% see a potential short squeeze building. About 11% of users believe the stock could remain stuck around $5, and 7% expect it to fall back below that level.

The poll followed a surge in trading volume, from above 80 million to 100 million shares, after reporting its first quarterly profit. 

One user said Nio was previously hit by a “perfect storm” of ultra-low rates, stimulus, and post-pandemic hype, while the current setup is being driven more by factors such as U.S.-China dynamics, potential China stimulus, lower rate risks, discounted Chinese valuations, and improving fundamentals like profitability and chips.

Another user said, “We need to gap up big at the open and build a long green candle that closes at the highs of the day with huge volume....this is called a bull confirmation confirmed by crowds of buyers.”

U.S.-listed shares of Nio stock have risen 15% so far this year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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