Nio Stock Slips In Hong Kong Ahead Of Q4 Print: Will ES8 Strength Push EV Maker Into Its First Profitable Quarter?

• The EV maker had earlier projected its first adjusted profit, with analysts expecting revenue to rise to about $4.81 billion and EBITDA to turn positive at roughly $36.25 million.
• However, ES8 delivery wait times have dropped sharply from about six months at launch to roughly three to four weeks.
• New orders climbed to about 3,500 units per week in early March, according to dealer checks cited by Deutsche Bank.

Shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) slipped over 1% in Hong Kong on Tuesday as investors braced for the EV maker’s fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings, with attention focused on ES8 demand trends and the company’s push toward its first profitable quarter.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio rose for a second straight session on Monday, gaining more than 3% to close at $4.94, before adding another 1% in extended trading.

Nio Q4 Preview

The EV maker, reporting results on Tuesday before the opening bell in New York, had earlier projected its first adjusted profit, a milestone analysts are also expecting it will deliver.

According to Koyfin estimates, revenue is expected to rise to about $4.81 billion, up from $3.06 billion in the previous quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is projected to turn positive at roughly $36.25 million, while GAAP earnings per share are expected to improve to about a loss of $0.01, compared with a loss of $0.21 previously.

Nio’s U.S.-listed shares carry a 12-month average price target of $6.49, implying a 31% upside from current levels. Among 26 covering analysts on Koyfin, 11 rate the shares a ‘Buy,’ 10 have ‘Hold’ ratings, one has a ‘Sell,’ and one a ‘Strong Sell,’ while three maintain a ‘Strong Buy’ recommendation.

ES8 Anchors Deliveries

Nio’s flagship third-generation ES8 SUV continues to anchor the company’s performance. The model delivered 11,260 vehicles in February, accounting for 54% of total deliveries and about 74% of the main brand’s volume.

Across January and February, ES8 deliveries reached 28,918 units, representing more than 60% of the company’s total deliveries and over 80% of main-brand sales.

The premium SUV is also central to Nio’s margin strategy. Co-founder and president Qin Lihong previously said the ES8 carries a gross margin of about 20% and an average selling price above 400,000 yuan ($57,900).

Looking ahead, investors are also watching the planned debut of the ES9, a larger flagship SUV expected to be unveiled on April 9, with deliveries scheduled to begin June 1. 

Wait Times Shrink As Backlog Clears

However, delivery wait times for the ES8 have shortened significantly since launch. Customers initially faced 24-26 week waits after the model debuted in September, but the delivery window has gradually declined to around three to four weeks, EV reported.

The sharp decline in wait times may reflect both increased production and moderating demand following the model’s initial launch surge. The ES8’s delivery window has fallen from about six months at launch to roughly three to four weeks currently, while the pace of delivery milestones has slowed, with the company taking about 30 days to move from 60,000 to 70,000 units compared with roughly two weeks for the previous 10,000 deliveries.

Some reservation holders may also be waiting for the upcoming ES9 SUV, which Nio plans to unveil on April 9.

Promotions Lift Early-March Orders

To sustain demand, Nio introduced incentives including a 10,000 yuan purchase-tax subsidy, seven-year low-interest financing, and complimentary driver-assistance features for buyers placing orders before March 31.

Dealer channel checks cited by Deutsche Bank showed weekly new orders climbing to about 3,500 units in early March, marking the company’s highest weekly order level so far this year after the promotional push.

Nio has also faced minor supply constraints tied to a shortage of audio signal-processing chips used in the ES8’s sound system, though the company said deliveries continued with temporary workarounds.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user said, “Maybe tomorrow is the day we start to go up.”

Another user said, “this thing is gonna fly tomorrow.... all profit baby, P R O F I T profit.”

U.S.-listed shares of Nio have declined 11% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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