ONGC Q1 Earnings Preview: SEBI RA Rohit Mehta Flags ₹220 As Key Support For Possible Bounce

State-run Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is projected to report a sequential drop in June-quarter net profit, weighed by lower crude realizations and reduced sales volumes, partly offset by slightly higher gas prices.

According to reports, revenue is estimated at ₹34,982 crore, down over 10% on both an annual and a sequential basis, while net profit is forecast at ₹7,558.90 crore, down 15% QoQ but up 17% YoY. EBITDA is expected to remain flat sequentially, supported by steady margins despite a 2 - 3% decline in crude volumes and a 1.5% dip in gas volumes.

Technical Assessment

ONGC’s chart shows the stock at a critical crossroads. After slipping nearly 21% from its all-time high of ₹327.60, prices are now hovering in the ₹220 - ₹225 support zone. This level has historically attracted buyers, making it a potential launchpad for a short-term rebound toward ₹257.60, said SEBI-registered analyst Rohit Mehta.

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However, a decisive breakdown below ₹220 could open the door to further downside, with sentiment likely turning sharply bearish, Mehta added.

Fundamental Watch

The stock’s valuation offers some comfort, Mehta noted. It trades at just 0.86x book value and boasts a healthy dividend yield of 5.25%, backed by a 37.9% payout ratio. However, growth concerns persist, with sales CAGR over five years at a modest 10.8% and average ROE at 13.6%.

Its shareholding pattern shows promoter stakes steady at 58.89% in June 2025, while both FIIs and DIIs trimmed holdings marginally. Financially, ONGC’s performance has been mixed with Q4FY25 sales slipping 0.77% YoY but rising 2.84% sequentially. Operating profit fell 4.9% YoY and 9% QoQ. EPS took the biggest hit, down 26.98% YoY.

What Is The Retail Mood?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ a day earlier.

ONGC shares were trading marginally higher on Monday. YTD losses stand at 2.2%.

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