RCL, CCL, NCLH: Have Cruise Stocks Found A Support? Crude Slips Below $100 As Iran Tensions Ease

• Retail sentiment is bullish on cruise line operators as Brent slips below $100 per barrel amid easing US-Iran war fears.
• Analysts at Wells Fargo and UBS lowered share price targets on RCL, but maintain 'Buy' ratings.
• Stocks currently trade at attractive valuations, with their 12-month forward P/E below the 10-year median P/E. 

Shares of cruise line operators Royal Caribbean, Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Lines are in focus as signs of easing tensions in the Middle East provide support to crude oil prices, as they hover below $100 per barrel (bbl). 

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire following meetings in Washington. The temporary truce began at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday.

RCL and CCL shares are set to end the week down between 2% and 4%, while NCLH shares are set to end the week on a flatter note, losing 0.4%. Retail sentiment on RCL, NCLH and CCL shares was ‘bullish’ on Stocktwits late Thursday, with message volumes up 200% for RCL, 130% for NCLH and 30% for CCL over the past week. 

Cruise line stocks are highly sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations, as these directly affect profit margins and fuel hedging strategies. RCL and NCLH shares have dropped nearly 20% since the beginning of the Middle-East crisis in February this year. 

Analysts Lower Price Targets, But Maintain A Positive Outlook 

Wells Fargo lowered its price target on Royal Caribbean to $349 from $383 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the shares, according to a summary of the note on The Fly. Meanwhile, UBS cut its price target to $321 from $350 amid expectations of weaker European demand and high fuel costs, but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. 

For CCL, Wells Fargo reduced its share price target to $36 from $37 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating while also lowering its target for NCLH to $26 from $32 at an ‘Overweight’ rating. The brokerage highlighted that the management of these cruise line operators might adopt a cautious stance on their full-year earnings outlook, as higher-than-expected fuel prices erode revenue.

Do RCL, NCLH, CCL Have Attractive Valuations?

RCL, CCL and NCLH shares are currently trading at a discount to their 10-year median price-to-earnings (p/e) of 16.01 times. The discount indicates the stock is currently "cheaper" than its historical average valuation over the last decade, suggesting it might be trading at a bargain price.

However, RCL, for instance, which is the industry's second-largest operator by passenger volume, reported a 110% occupancy rate in 2025, an 8% jump in revenue, and a 48% jump in net profit, aided by controlled expenses. While soaring fuel prices are mostly factored into share prices, analyst expectations of lower profit margins due to high fuel costs might offset gains from cheaper valuations. 

Strong Cruise Bookings Aid Retail Sentiment

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was ‘bullish’ for RCL, NCLH and CCL. 

One user wrote,”$RCL $DAL $ALK $VIK. These become expensive when the Iran war settles. But now. These will move past previous highs once the war is over.”

Another user highlighted the strong bookings trajectory of cruise line operators. 

RCL shares have dropped 6% YTD, while CCL and NCLH shares have lost nearly 12% of their value so far this year.  

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