NVO Vs. LLY: Whose Weight-Loss Pill Do Americans Prefer?

• Lilly launched Foundayo in April — roughly three months after Novo Nordisk introduced its own oral version of Wegovy in January.
• RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh reportedly noted that Foundayo’s weekly prescription volume will need to rise significantly to meet Wall Street expectations.
• However, Lilly is also scaling prescriptions week after week.

Eli Lilly’s oral obesity pill Foundayo reportedly generated 7,335 prescriptions in its fourth week on the U.S. market, a softer reception than rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill.

Lilly launched Foundayo in April — roughly three months after Novo Nordisk introduced its own oral version of Wegovy in January — giving the Danish drugmaker a clear first-mover advantage in the emerging oral GLP-1 category. Novo’s Wegovy pill, however, generated 28,515 prescriptions in its fourth week on the market, Reuters noted, citing IQVIA data.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh reportedly noted that Foundayo’s weekly prescription volume will need to rise significantly to meet Wall Street expectations. “The pill will need about 22,000 prescriptions per week to hit the consensus expectations of $160 million in second-quarter sales,” Huynh told Reuters.

Foundayo Vs. Wegovy

Foundayo was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in April for use in combination with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to reduce excess body weight and maintain long-term weight reduction in adults with obesity. The company started shipping the drugs on April 6.  

In a late-stage trial, individuals taking the highest dose of Foundayo and who stayed on treatment lost an average of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) compared to 2.2 pounds (0.9%) with placebo. The drug also led to reductions in many markers of cardiovascular risk, including waist circumference, non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure across all doses.

Oral obesity pills are expected to be the next major innovation in the obesity market, doing away with needles and offering customers more flexibility and ease. The FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s oral obesity pill in December. Novo launched it to a commendable reception in January, with 3,071 prescriptions recorded in the first week, compared to Foundayo's mere 1,390.

How Did LLY Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around LLY fell from ‘bullish’ to ‘neutral’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume fell from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.

LLY has gained 26% over the past 12 months, while NYSE-listed shares of NVO fell 29%.

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