Retail Traders Bearish On Recursion Pharma Ahead of Q1 Results Despite Positive Tupelo Trial Data

Retail sentiment toward Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) leaned bearish ahead of its first-quarter earnings on Monday, as traders expressed caution despite encouraging preliminary data from the company’s Tupelo trial of REC-4881.

On Stocktwits, one user described the trial results as a potential “home run,” but said the upside would hinge on management’s explanation of an outlier patient response. 

Another cited $4.65 as a level to “back test,” reflecting broader uncertainty around the stock’s technical setup.

Over the weekend, Recursion presented data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2 TUPELO trial of REC-4881, an investigational MEK1/2 inhibitor for Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP), at Digestive Disease Week 2025. 

The open-label Phase 2 portion showed a median 43% reduction in polyp burden at Week 13 among six evaluable patients. 

While five patients showed reductions of 31% to 82%, one patient exhibited a 595% increase, which analysts expect management to address during the earnings call.

The treatment was generally well-tolerated, with no Grade 4 or higher adverse events reported. Grade 3 events occurred in 16% of patients.

The update came ahead of Recursion’s Q1 earnings report, where revenue is expected to rise nearly 4x year-over-year to $18.08 million, up from $4.55 million in the prior-year period, according to Koyfin estimates. 

Net loss is forecast at $184.14 million, little changed from the $183.77 million loss last year. EPS is expected at a loss of $0.56 versus a $0.53 loss a year earlier.

However, analyst sentiment has remained steady. 

Of eight covering analysts, six rate the stock ‘Hold,’ one rates it ‘Buy,’ and one ‘Strong Buy,’ giving it an average rating of 3.38 out of 5, according to Koyfin.

Shares of Recursion have fallen nearly 21% so far this year.

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