RGTI Stock Sees Its Price-Target Cut By Up To 52% Despite Quantum Fidelity Gains — Company Sets Sights On 1,000-Qubit System

• Rigetti expects full-year 2026 revenue of about $20 million, contingent on customer acceptance of a 108-qubit system ordered by India’s C-DAC.
• Mizuho, citing “soft” guidance, expects fourth-quarter revenue of $9.1 million, below the $9.7 million consensus.
• The quantum company targets a system exceeding 300 qubits with approximately 99.7% fidelity by mid-2028.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) received a slew of price-target cuts on Wednesday after its third-quarter revenue missed Wall Street expectations, although four firms maintained their bullish ratings on the quantum computing company.

Needham made the steepest reduction, lowering its target by 52% to $15 from $31 while retaining a ‘Buy’ rating, according to Investing.com. The firm attributed the revenue shortfall to the timing of system deliveries.

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Mizuho reduced its price target to $17 from $22, maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating and citing Rigetti's “soft” guidance, according to The Fly. The firm expects fourth-quarter revenue of $9.1 million, below the $9.7 million consensus estimate.

At the time of this writing, RGTI shares were up over 1% in the opening trade.

Q3 Revenue Miss

Rigetti reported third-quarter revenue of $1.4 million, down 28% year over year and below the approximately $3.52 million consensus tracked by FiscalAI. Revenue declined 73% sequentially, with no hardware revenue recognized during the quarter.

Alliance Global also lowered its target on RGTI stock to $22 from $37 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm cited a lower valuation multiple, a higher share count associated with the U.S. Department of Commerce agreement, and an increased discount rate.

According to the note cited by TheFly, StoneX also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating while cutting its target to $20 from $25.

What Rigetti's Quantum Roadmap Shows

Rigetti expects full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $20 million, subject to customer acceptance of its 108-qubit system ordered by India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) and recognition of the associated revenue in the fourth quarter.

The company said its Cepheus-1-108Q system achieved a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, with a 50-qubit subsection reaching 99.7%. 

It now targets a system exceeding 300 qubits with approximately 99.7% fidelity by mid-2028, followed by a roughly 1,000-qubit system with approximately 99.9% fidelity within three years.

Retail Investors’ Sentiment Around RGTI Stock

On Stocktwits, retail investors’ sentiment around RGTI stock flipped into ‘extremely bullish’ territory amid high message volume.

So far this year, RGTI stock has fallen over 48%. By comparison, the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM), which holds the stock, has risen over 15% during this period.

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