RKLB, SPCX, ASTS Head For Over 30% July Losses — Goldman Says Space Stocks Are 5x More Volatile Than S&P 500

• Goldman’s space basket remains up 13% this year after surging over 360% in two years.
• Some space companies could turn profitable next year, with the broader basket profitable by 2027, the research firm said.
• Retail traders remain cautious, with space trailing memory and neoclouds among beaten-down sectors investors are looking to buy in a Stocktwits poll.  

Space stocks are enduring a brutal July reversal, with Rocket Lab, SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile all down more than 30% as the sector’s blockbuster rally loses altitude.

RKLB stock has fallen about 34% this month, heading for its worst month since November 2025. ASTS is down 38%, its weakest month since January 2024, while SPCX has shed about 35% over the past month.

Space Stocks Outpace S&P 500 Despite Wild Swings 

Goldman Sachs said that its basket of U.S. space and satellite stocks is about five times as volatile as the S&P 500 and twice as volatile as a comparable AI basket. The group was still up about 13% this year through July 14, ahead of the S&P 500’s 9.8% gain, after surging more than 360% over the previous two years. SpaceX was added to the basket on July 14 after its public-market debut helped fuel another burst of enthusiasm across launch, satellite and orbital-connectivity stocks. 

Louis Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Basket, said the sector has evolved beyond a purely speculative trade. “Prior to 2025, this theme was considered more speculative and traded more in line with nascent disruptive-tech-related stocks,” Miller said. He added that the group has since benefited from growing interest in “rocket launches, satellites, global communications, and the potential for future markets that are then enabled by them.”

However, he cautioned that “investor enthusiasm will likely move ahead of fundamentals at times,” making the path “uneven” despite a compelling long-term opportunity.

Space ‘Picks And Shovels’ Could Lead Next Rally 

Goldman said investors may be looking too narrowly at headline rocket companies. “Investors focused solely on launch providers may be missing a significant portion of the opportunity set,” Miller said, pointing to communications infrastructure, semiconductors, electronics, software, advanced materials and manufacturing.

He compared the sector’s development with the AI trade, where investor attention expanded from model developers to chips, power and data-center infrastructure. “The strongest long-term opportunity could come from identifying the picks-and-shovels providers that enable commercialization,” Miller said.

Interest in the theme is not limited to one investor group. “The demand we have observed has come from all types of investors across retail, private wealth management, as well as from institutional investors,” Miller said. He added that “most conversations have shown long-term investment horizons for this theme,” as investors seek differentiated growth opportunities outside traditional sector allocations.

Goldman said that some companies in its space basket could become profitable next year, while analyst estimates point to the broader group reaching profitability in 2027. Falling launch and satellite costs, rising demand for orbital broadband and growing defense-related revenue could drive profits. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Space Stocks?

However, retail traders appear cautious about stepping into the selloff. In a Stocktwits poll drawing 10,400 votes, space attracted just 27% of users looking to add exposure to beaten-down sectors. Memory led with 44%, followed by neoclouds at 29%.

Sentiment on Stocktwits was mixed across space stocks: ASTS was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume, RKLB was ‘bullish’ with ‘high’ activity, while SPCX remained ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

Over the past year, ASTS has gained 5%, while RKLB has climbed 41%. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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