HOOD Stock In Focus: Robinhood’s March Data Signals Shift Beyond Crypto Before Q1 Earnings Next Month

• In March, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading volume dropped roughly 36% to $16 billion from $25 billion in February.
• Most of the value was in options and event contracts, a shift away from just crypto, in line with Bernstein's February prediction about Robinhood.
• The $196 billion in equity trading volumes was roughly comparable to the $194 billion in February.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) on Monday reported a sharp decline in crypto trading activity in March compared to February, even as overall trading volumes across equities and derivatives remained resilient.

The company's month-to-date data for March (March 1-27) showed that notional cryptocurrency trading volume was about $16 billion, a 36% decline from the $25 billion recorded in February, ahead of its first-quarter earnings due in April. 

Of the $16 billion in crypto volume this month, $5 billion came from the Robinhood app and $11 billion from Bitstamp, which Robinhood acquired last year. 

However, data also showed that equity trading volumes stood at $196 billion, broadly in line with February's $194 billion. Options contracts traded reached roughly 187 million, up from 180 million last month. Event contracts, which include prediction market bets on sports, politics, and other real-world outcomes, reached 2.6 billion for the month. 

Robinhood’s stock was trading marginally higher in early pre-market hours on Tuesday. The stock closed over $65 on Monday. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around HOOD remained in the ‘bullish’ territory, while chatter levels around it remained ‘high’ over the past day.

The drop coincides with ongoing weakness in the broader cryptocurrency market, where sentiment remains muted, and Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to regain momentum, recording a third consecutive month of losses. 

Bernstein’s Prediction Played Out In March Data 

On Monday, Bernstein analysts cited a bear market as the reason for cutting price targets on Robinhood and Coinbase (COIN). The brokerage reduced its price target for Coinbase from $440 to $330 and for Robinhood from $160 to $130. 

In February, Bernstein analysts said Robinhood's business was shifting structurally away from crypto, pointing to prediction markets, margin lending, subscriptions, and banking as growth drivers that are less sensitive to crypto price movements.  Moreover, SpaceX is reportedly planning on removing Robinhood from its upcoming IPO launch. 

Robinhood’s upcoming Q1 earnings report on April 29 is likely to highlight a mixed trading environment. According to Koyfin, the firm has an average price target of $117.74 and a normalized consensus earnings-per-share estimate of $2.52 for the next 12 months. However, Robinhood’s stock is down over 43% this year so far.

Read also: MARA, HUT, CIFR Rally Pre-Market – But Bitcoin’s Weak Sentiment Keeps A Lid On Gains

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