Sam Altman Admits Getting AI's Timeline Wrong: ‘We've All Been Too Ambitious’

• “We've all been too ambitious on timelines,” the OpenAI CEO said in a new podcast episode.
• Since ChatGPT’s launch in 2022, several billion dollars have been poured into AI, reshaping business and society.
• OpenAI now trails Anthropic in revenue and valuation.

Sam Altman has said he believes AI labs, including his firm OpenAI, might have overestimated the AI industry’s pace of growth – an ominous remark by one of the top tech executives as the center of the booming industry.

"I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be," Altman said in a podcast hosted by David Senra, who is also known for his Founders Podcast.

Altman Admits To Getting AI’s Timeline Wrong

"I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia… we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."

"People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it."

Since the public launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, billions upon billions of dollars have been poured into AI development, changing how businesses and society operate. Big Tech has lined up yet another massive sum this year towards AI and the computing infrastructure to support.

However, some investors have grown concerned that heavy AI investment might not deliver the expected returns and that the high valuations of tech companies, propped up by their AI strategies, are at risk.

Tech commentator and newsletter writer Ed Zitron said Altman has a habit of making controversial remarks.

“Really have to say it for Sam - he knows exactly the worst thing to say at the worst time to say it. This is almost as funny as a few months ago when companies were fretting over huge token bills he said it was a ‘huge issue for customers.’” Zitron wrote in an X post.

OpenAI On Backfoot

OpenAI’s revenue rose 18% quarter over quarter to $6.7 billion in the second quarter, while sales at Anthropic doubled, The Wall Street Journal reported last week, signaling a widening gap.

The divergence highlights how quickly the AI race has shifted, with slower ChatGPT growth and Claude Code’s success putting OpenAI on the back foot and forcing a business and leadership overhaul.

OpenAI has reportedly pushed its IPO to next year, while reports suggest Anthropic might launch its offering next month or in early October. 

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ for OpenAI and ‘neutral’ for Anthropic. Anthropic is valued at $1.12 trillion, compared to OpenAI’s private market valuation of $882.62 billion, according to data from Nasdaq Private Market.

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