SEBI RA Vikash Bagaria Warns Bank Nifty Could Drop To 52,500–50,000 If Key Support Breaks

The Bank Nifty extended its losing streak on Tuesday, slipping further amid mounting signs of profit-booking and fading momentum. 

The index struggled to hold above key levels, and is down 3% from its all-time high of 56,098 in April. Broad-based selling in PSU bank stocks like Bank of Baroda, PNB, and Canara Bank has dragged the index. 

SEBI-registered analyst Vikash Bagaria maintains a bearish outlook, citing a clear rejection from the 56,000+ zone. 

He identifies this as a textbook double top formation — a technical pattern that often signals a potential trend reversal. 

This week’s bearish candle suggests that institutional investors are booking profits, indicating a possible shift in sentiment. 

Momentum indicators back his view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had recently hovered in overbought territory, has cooled sharply, reflecting a loss of buying strength. Simultaneously, the MACD shows signs of convergence, a signal that bullish momentum is waning. 

Bagaria highlights that a break below the 54,250 mark would signal further weakness, potentially driving Bank Nifty toward the 52,500–50,000 range. 

He noted that trendline resistance remains a dominant factor, effectively capping any significant upside. 

Given these technical signals, Bagaria warns that initiating fresh long positions is risky. He added that short positions may become more dominant if key support levels are breached.

The Nifty Bank index gained 6% year-to-date (YTD).

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