Shipping Giant Maersk Raises Global Container Demand Forecast On Strong Non-US Imports

Denmark’s Maersk, considered a bellwether of global trade, raised its forecast for shipping activity worldwide on Thursday, based on strong demand outside North America.

The company expects the global container market to grow between 2% and 4% in 2025, compared with its earlier forecast between a 1% decline and 4% expansion.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff declarations since April 2 have upended global trade, prompting shippers like Maersk to revise their forecasts. Maersk stated that the effective container-weighted import tariff on U.S. imports is estimated at 24%, as per the Presidential Executive Order dated July 31, up from 5% in 2024.

However, Maersk, which holds a 14% market share of the container shipping industry, said that several pockets of growth have emerged. The company stated that a contraction in North American imports was more than offset by strong import growth in Europe, Latin America, West-Central Asia, and Africa.

“Even with market volatility and historical uncertainty in global trade, demand remained resilient, and we’ve continued to respond with speed and flexibility,” said Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk.

While projecting a rise in container demand, Maersk warned that the outlook for shipping for the rest of the year remains uncertain, shaped by a “rapidly evolving tariff landscape and high policy uncertainty in the U.S.”

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing, while traders were ‘neutral’ about the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) that tracks the Nasdaq 100.

The company also noted that economic growth will moderate in the second half of the year as the drag from the U.S. tariffs, heightened uncertainty, and the shift in sentiment begin to take hold.

It also expects Red Sea disruptions, which began following the attacks on container ships by Houthis in Yemen, to continue for the remainder of the year.

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