S&P 500 Gives Up Gains After Hitting Record High — Analyst Says There Could Be More Upside Bias

• Schwab analysts noted that the big bank earnings this week reassured investors that the U.S. economy has remained resilient despite the uncertainty caused by the Iran war.
• JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America reported their first-quarter results this week, with all of them blowing past Wall Street’s earnings estimates.
• The S&P 500 is up nearly 3% this week, while the DJIA is up nearly 1%.

U.S. equities were mixed in Thursday morning’s trade, with the S&P 500 giving up gains after rising to a new record high of 7,040, amid a slew of earnings as well as reports of the United States and Iran extending the two-week ceasefire.

The S&P 500 was down 0.1% at the time of writing, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down about 100 points, and the Nasdaq Composite edged lower by 0.1%.

Analysts at Schwab credited the surge in the S&P 500 to impressive earnings and positive news about the war in Iran.

“As long as negotiations are moving in the right direction and U.S. crude stays below $100 per barrel, there could be more upside bias,” said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Big Bank Earnings Reassure Investors

Schwab analysts also noted that the big banks' earnings this week reassured investors that the U.S. economy has remained resilient despite the uncertainty caused by the war in Iran.

“Several banks lowered their provisions for loan losses, meaning they see less need for heavy amounts of cash on hand to guard against defaults on loans. Also, wealth management and trading results looked solid in the first quarter, with Morgan Stanley the latest to impress with better-than-expected trading activity,” the firm stated.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America reported their first-quarter (Q1) results this week, with all of them blowing past Wall Street’s earnings estimates.

While JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned about an increasingly “complex set of risks” facing the U.S. economy amid rising geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Iran, he highlighted the economic resilience supported by multiple tailwinds, including fiscal stimulus, AI-driven capital investments, and more.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 3% this week, while the DJIA is up nearly 1%.

Crude oil prices have seen sideways movement this week, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expiring in May down over 3%, while Brent crude futures maturing in June rose 3%.

However, crude futures rose on Thursday. At the time of writing, WTI futures were up more than 2%, hovering around $94 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were up more than 3% at $98 a barrel.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) rose about 3%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) was up more than 2% at the time of writing.

US, Iran Inch Closer To Extending Truce

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran inched closer to extending the two-week ceasefire, with mediators making progress in restarting negotiations between the two countries.

According to a report by The Associated Press on Wednesday, regional officials stated that the U.S. and Iran had reached an “in principle” agreement to extend the ongoing ceasefire to allow more time for diplomatic efforts between the two countries' representatives.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran on Thursday that the blockade of Iranian ports would continue if they “choose poorly.”

“In the meantime and for as long as it takes, we will maintain this successful blockade. But if Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure and power and energy,” Hegseth said during a press conference on Thursday morning.

At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, declined 0.08%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) gained 0.06%; and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) fell 0.22%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&P 500 ETF was in the ‘bullish’ territory.

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