SpaceX Could Match Google’s 27-Year Data Center Buildout In 18 Months, Outpace Even Chinese Rivals: SemiAnalysis

• SpaceX’s construction speed may outpace even Chinese rivals, with some facilities targeting four- to five-month builds.
• Google and Anthropic’s computing agreements carry a combined annual contract value of $26 billion.
• Power remains a constraint, with SemiAnalysis estimating a possible shortfall exceeding 300MW at Colossus 2.

Google spent nearly three decades building the data center infrastructure that supports its cloud and AI ambitions. SpaceX (SPCX) could match that cumulative capacity in just 18 months, according to SemiAnalysis. The Elon Musk-led company could reach 13 GW of data center capacity by 2027, with construction timelines that may outpace even Chinese competitors, the firm said. 

SPCX stock jumped nearly 4% on Tuesday to $141.31, logging its second straight session of gains. 

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SemiAnalysis Backs SpaceX’s Bigger AI Target

SpaceX’s plan to reach 13 gigawatts of data center capacity in 2027 looks achievable, according to SemiAnalysis, which has identified more than 9GW across sites, including 3.6GW already under construction. The company raised its target from 10GW just two months after skeptics questioned whether the earlier plan was possible, the firm said.

“We now believe that SpaceX may be the fastest datacenter builder in the world, even more so than Chinese peers,” SemiAnalysis said. The projected buildout could match the capacity Google accumulated over nearly three decades in just 18 months.

“This would be the largest amount of datacenter capacity ever built by any one company in that timeframe, roughly equivalent to all of Google’s datacenter capacity from 1999-2026 in just 1.5 years,” the analysts said.

In August, SemiAnalysis said SpaceX’s 10GW plan could support $300 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027, assuming half its additional computing capacity was rented to outside customers. 

SpaceX Races To Break Its Own Records

SemiAnalysis said MiniHard, an AI data center expansion in SpaceX’s Colossus 2 complex, took about five months to build. Gun Range, another facility on a former police training site in Southaven, Mississippi, is targeting four months.

“To our knowledge, this would be the fastest greenfield datacenter ever built at scale,” the analysts said, referring to a facility built from scratch. “While most are fighting for 8-12-month build times, SpaceX has cut them in half.”

Project SPAM could move even faster. Construction began last month, with its first computing systems targeted to start running in December, and potentially beating the first Colossus II deployment’s 91-day timeline. SpaceX’s initial Colossus cluster, a group of connected AI processors, took 122 days to come online.

Starbase And Tesla Fuel The Buildout

SemiAnalysis said SpaceX is adapting its Starbase rocket campus in Texas for two data centers that could support well over 1GW. Construction progressed from ground clearing in August to building frames and roofs simultaneously by September.

“These are multiple construction processes performed simultaneously, a visual representation of speed,” the analysts said. The firm also sees a possible data center serving outside customers at Terafab, Musk’s proposed Texas chip factory.

Meanwhile, Tesla may help speed construction by supplying prefabricated mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems. “If SpaceX and Tesla can manage their global supply chains appropriately, their partnership can easily construct GWs with far fewer constraints than others,” the analysts said. “Tesla will likely become more than a BESS merchant to SpaceX soon,” they added, referring to battery storage systems.

Google And Anthropic Drive Cloud Push

SpaceX expanded into AI through its acquisition of xAI in February and its Colossus computing infrastructure.

Anthropic agreed in May to use all of Colossus 1’s capacity, covering more than 300 megawatts and 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Google separately agreed to access about 110,000 GPUs, with payments scheduled at $920 million monthly from October 2026 through June 2029. The two agreements carry a combined annual contract value of $26 billion.

Power Supply Tests SpaceX’s AI Ambitions

However, SemiAnalysis flagged a power supply hurdle. The firm tracks more than 8GW of likely generation capacity supplying SpaceX directly, compared with more than 9GW of upcoming data center capacity. “These sites now build so fast that the power supply is often identified mid-flight,” the analysts said.

At Colossus 2, 5.9 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, gas generation and a planned grid connection could help offset restrictions on turbine capacity. Even then, SemiAnalysis estimates a possible power shortfall exceeding 300MW.

More efficient designs, adjustments to computing workloads and battery storage could help close the gap. “If the datacenters are designed right (and our IT MW assumptions are correct), this could work,” the analysts said, referring to their estimates of computing equipment’s power needs.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a week ago amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “$SPCX when your the Richest Man “Elon” on the planet! You can make anything happen! That’s why SpaceX is the most exciting stock to own, not trade”

Another user said, “$SPCX Every time Elon says possibility of...in talks with...pursuing...retail starts buying like crazy as the insiders sell their unlocked shares to you.”

SPCX stock has declined 12% year-to-date.

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