SpaceX Could Be Worth $50 Trillion In 10 Years, Says Ron Baron: ‘Elon Thinks I’m Way Low’

• He believes space-based data centers could become several times more valuable than Starlink.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has called SpaceX’s “Distributed Inference Cloud” an overlooked growth opportunity.
• Recovered Starship Ship 40 is back at Starbase and will provide data on its heat shield, engines and avionics.

Billionaire investor Ron Baron thinks SpaceX could be worth as much as $50 trillion within a decade, implying a nearly 25-fold jump in valuation, and said CEO Elon Musk told him the forecast may still be too conservative.

SPCX stock fell more than 4% on Tuesday, marking its worst session in over two months. 

Baron’s $50 Trillion SpaceX Case Goes Beyond Starlink

“In 10 years, I think it’s going to be thousands of dollars a share. I think it’ll be worth $20 trillion, $30 trillion, $50 trillion,” Baron said in a recent interview. “Elon thinks I’m way low.” After 56 years of investing, Baron said he has “never seen” a company like SpaceX, whose potential extends far beyond rockets.  

He sees Starlink as a major source of future value. “Starlink alone in the next 10 years is going to be worth somewhere around $14 trillion, $15 trillion,” he said. In an August interview, Baron laid out an even more detailed forecast, saying Starlink could grow from $15 billion to $17 billion in annual revenue and reach $1 trillion within a decade, with annual profit of $700 billion to $800 billion.

Baron also sees a much larger opportunity in orbital data centers. “And then the data centers in space, man, that’s unbelievable,” he said. He added that the facilities could avoid constraints around electricity, water and permitting on Earth, and could eventually become several times more valuable than Starlink.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has also highlighted SpaceX’s computing ambitions. In excerpts from a note shared on X by investor Sawyer Merritt, Jonas identified the company’s “Distributed Inference Cloud” as its most overlooked growth opportunity. He said expanding networks of physical AI systems could drive greater demand for computing and expects investors to pay more attention to the theme over the coming year. 

SpaceX Eyes Heat Shield And Engine Findings From Ship 40

Baron’s thesis also depends on SpaceX lowering the cost of reaching orbit. He has said Starship could eventually cut launch costs from about $1,500 to $150 per kilogram, giving the company a “tremendous advantage.”

SpaceX has now brought Ship 40, the Starship upper stage used on Flight 13, back to Starbase after it survived a splashdown in the Indian Ocean and was transported to Texas. The company says the vehicle will provide “first-of-its-kind data” on a flown heat shield, Raptor engines, avionics and other systems. 

Baron’s SpaceX Stake Hits $25B

Baron also said in the interview that his firm had invested about $2.5 billion in SpaceX since 2017 and owned 1.25% of the company. He said the stake was worth about $25 billion as of June. In August, he said Baron Capital wanted to invest another $1 billion and expected to make “hundreds of billions of dollars” from its SpaceX stake.

The Baron First Principles ETF (RONB) gives investors exposure to Baron’s SpaceX bet. The fund held 905,118 SPCX shares as of Monday, making SpaceX its largest position at about 41% of its assets. RONB is down nearly 1% so far this year, compared with gains of 15% for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and 21% for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).  

His advice to friends is to keep adding to their holdings. “You should buy some SpaceX, and then you should keep buying it every month,” he said. He said investors should keep buying even after they wake up worried about how much risk they have taken.

However, in August, he said, “I don’t have a clue about what this stock is going to sell for in the short term.” He also cited about 270 million SpaceX shares sold short after a lockup expiration, while more than 911 million early-investor shares had become eligible for sale. 

His conviction partly comes from his earlier bet on Musk. Baron said his firm invested $400 million in Tesla between 2014 and 2016 and had made about $7.7 billion so far. He expects that investment to grow fivefold again over the next 10 to 15 years.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX And RONB?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ levels a week ago amid ‘high’ message volume. However, sentiment for RONB has held up better at ‘neutral,’ up from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago, although retail interest has dipped over the past three months as watchers fell by over 10%. 

One user said, “$SPCX Personally think we’re only at the beginning of a major correction. I want to see $125 tested again before even considering opening a position.”

Another user wondered, “Can you imagine if SpaceX goes to $2,000 by 2030? My $60,000 will be worth over $700,000 lol.”

SPCX stock has declined 3% year-to-date.

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