Starship Reusability is ‘Absolutely Central’ To SpaceX’s AI Play In Long Term, Says Bernstein

• The forecast assumes around 3,500 Starship launches by 2031, making full reusability essential.
• Bernstein has a price target of $248 and an ‘Outperform’ rating on SPCX shares.
• Analyst Douglas Harned called Grok a potential wildcard.

Bernstein believes SpaceX’s (SPCX) plan to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure in orbit offers major upside, but the opportunity depends on the reusability of its Starship.

“So this path toward full reusability, that is absolutely central to the AI play here long term, and to the kinds of valuations that we’re seeing right now, and that we expect,” Douglas Harned, Bernstein’s aerospace and defense senior analyst, said in an interview with CNBC on Monday.

At the time of writing, SPCX shares were up over 5%.

All Eyes On Starship Launches

Bernstein expects SpaceX to generate about $600 billion in revenue by 2031, well below the company’s target of $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. The forecast assumes around 3,500 Starship launches by 2031, making full reusability essential.

“We’re looking at the order of 3,500 Starship launches in 2031. So what you need to see is the success of reuse of Starship. We haven't seen it yet,” Harned said.

Bernstein has a price target of $248 and an ‘Outperform’ rating on SPCX shares, implying 68% upside from current levels.

Grok A Potential Wildcard

Harned stated that Grok is a potential wildcard. The combination of Grok 4.6 and the Cursor acquisition could strengthen SpaceX’s AI products, creating an upside that Bernstein has not included in its forecasts.

“But I should add, there's one other factor in here. And for us, it's a little bit of a wildcard, because, depending on how Grok does… and you’ve got the Cursor deal. You may be able to see a more attractive intelligence product as well, which is not something we've incorporated, but could provide some more upside here,” he added.

Last week, SpaceX’s xAI unit launched Grok 4.6, a new model designed for complex tasks such as research, data analysis, software development and application creation. SpaceX also completed the acquisition of Cursor for $60 billion.

Cursor is an AI coding platform that helps developers write, edit and debug software. It is used by more than 50,000 businesses and 64% of Fortune 500 companies. The deal gives SpaceX’s AI business an established corporate customer base and access to valuable coding data.

Retail Sees $150 As A ‘Hard Ceiling’ For SPCX

Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours.

One user expects the stock to rally once it breaks past $150.

Another user called $150 a “hard ceiling.”

SPCX shares have gained around 9% from its listing price.

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