Watch Tesla Model Y/3 Q1 Delivery Numbers Closely — Analyst Warns As S/X Near End Of Production

• Flat or more growth in Model Y/3 delivery numbers would demonstrate stability following the expiration of tax credit on the purchase of new electric vehicles in the U.S., he said. 
• Deepwater estimates that about 40% of Tesla’s overall sales come from the U.S., of which about three quarters took advantage of the now-expired tax credit.
• Model S/X delivery numbers are ignorable, provided the vehicles are slated to end production in the second quarter, Munster said.

Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) Model Y and 3 deliveries will be the prime focus when the EV giant announces its first quarter delivery numbers next week, according to Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster.

Munster expects Tesla’s Model 3/Y delivery numbers will be at about 330,000 units, lower than Wall Street estimate of 351,000 units. “If Model 3 & Y deliveries come in at 324k or better (vs. the Street at 351k), it is a win for TSLA shares,” he said in a statement, while adding that this would demonstrate stability following the expiration of tax credit on the purchase of new electric vehicles in the U.S.

Deepwater estimates that about 40% of Tesla’s overall sales come from the U.S., of which about three quarters took advantage of the now-expired tax credit.

Overall Q1 Numbers

The analyst now expects overall delivery volume in the three months through the end of March to come in at 345,000 units, marking a growth of 2%, but below a Wall Street estimate of about 366,000 units.

While Tesla investors are now eyeing other developments at the company, including the development of its robotaxi network and improvement in the performance of its full self-driving driver assistance software, among others, “deliveries still matter,” Munster said.

Munster’s Delivery Estimates

Model S/X delivery numbers are ignorable, provided the vehicles are slated to end production in the second quarter, Munster said. However, the vehicles will see a bump up in delivery numbers in the quarter on its way out, he noted.

As for the company’s energy storage business, Munster expects Tesla’s energy deployments to be up 38% year-over-year in the quarter.

“While shifting political landscapes and fluctuating federal subsidies create headwinds, there is a massive boom in battery storage (like Tesla’s Megapack and Powerwall business),” he noted.

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘high’ levels.

TSLA stock has gained 33% over the past 12 months. 

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