Tesla Q3 Deliveries Could Beat Expectations, Says Barclays — Analyst Calls Fundamentals An ‘Afterthought’ To AI Story

• Barclays said Tesla’s ramp-up of FSD supports its autonomous-driving ambitions and could help improve margins.
• The firm maintained an ‘Equal Weight’ rating and $370 price target.
• Goldman Sachs cut its Q3 delivery estimate to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 units.

Tesla (TSLA) was in the spotlight on Friday after Barclays said the EV maker could deliver more vehicles than expected in the third quarter and added that its autonomous driving technologies could boost margins.

At the time of writing, TSLA shares were trading 1% lower, heading for their first weekly fall in three weeks.

Barclays Sees Autonomous Driving Boost

Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects Tesla to deliver 475,000 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3), above the 466,000 estimate reportedly compiled by Bloomberg. This also beats Goldman Sachs’ estimates from earlier this week.

The firm maintained an ‘Equal Weight’ rating and $370 price target, according to The Fly. It represents a 2.2% upside from current levels.

Barclays said Tesla’s ramp-up of Full Self-Driving (FSD) supports the company’s broader autonomous-driving ambitions and could help improve margins. However, Levy said Tesla’s underlying fundamentals remain “mostly an afterthought” to its AI efforts.

FSD Could Find Favor In Europe, But Cybercab Faces Domestic Scrutiny

Tesla has increasingly positioned AI and autonomy at the center of its long-term growth story, spanning FSD, its Robotaxi network, and Optimus humanoid robots.

Tesla has continued to update its Full Self-Driving software, recently rolling out FSD v14.3.9. The carmaker is also pushing to expand FSD internationally, with Slovenia becoming the sixth European country to approve the system ahead of a potential broader EU rollout.

However, FSD still requires active driver supervision and does not make Tesla vehicles fully autonomous.

Meanwhile, its Cybercab is facing fresh regulatory scrutiny. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reportedly asked Tesla to explain by September 30 how it certified the robotaxi, including whether temporary human-operated controls were used during the process.

Goldman Sachs Has A More Cautious View

Barclays’ delivery forecast contrasts sharply with Goldman Sachs, which cut its Q3 estimate to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000.

Goldman said sales in Tesla’s key U.S., Chinese and European markets were tracking below its earlier expectations, even if strength in Southeast Asia, South America and Australia could partly offset that weakness.

Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter (Q2), rebounding sharply from 358,023 in Q1. Barclays’ estimate would represent only a slight sequential decline, while Goldman’s forecast implies a drop of about 9%.

Retail’s Take On TSLA

Retail sentiment for TSLA on Stocktwits remained ‘extremely bearish’ over the past 24 hours.

TSLA is down more than 17% so far in 2026, easily the worst-performing stock among the so-called Magnificent 7.

Also read: Microsoft AI Chief Warns Giving Artificial Intelligence Sense Of ‘Rights’ Could Make It Harder To Shut Down

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