Tesla, Rivian Deliveries Beat Estimates: Analysts Explain Why TSLA Rallied While RIVN Fell

• Black said the upside caused by high gas prices could support higher full-year 2026 estimates after Tesla’s earnings report, depending on how much the company spends on AI.
• Gerber said the run rate remains below two million vehicles a year, calling it “massively disappointing.”
• Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management framed Tesla’s 2% decline as evidence an “EV winter” is thawing.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) rose about 5% on Friday after delivering 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, a beat that Gary Black of The Future Fund tied mainly to higher gas prices, while Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki called the same result decent but still far short of the multi-million-unit pace once expected.

Tesla’s peer Rivian Automotive (RIVN), meanwhile, slipped about 3% despite a larger percentage beat in quarterly deliveries and an unchanged full-year outlook.

TSLA, RIVN Delivery Numbers

Tesla’s total deliveries in the quarter were about 25,000 above the company-compiled consensus of 461,974. Production was 464,391, so deliveries outpaced builds by roughly 22,000. The figure was still down about 2% from 497,099 a year earlier, a period boosted by buyers rushing to claim the U.S. federal EV tax credit before it expired. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 of the deliveries.

Rivian, meanwhile, delivered 19,248 vehicles, up about 46% from a year earlier and ahead of expectations near 18,000. Production was 19,751. The company reaffirmed 2026 delivery guidance of 65,000 to 70,000, a range it had already raised in July.

Gas Prices, Not A Demand Renaissance, Says Black

Black said the 486,532 figure beat his own estimate of 470,000 and the Street’s 462,000. He said the upside caused by high gas prices could support higher full-year 2026 estimates after Tesla’s earnings report, depending on how much the company spends on AI. He estimated global inventory at about 12 days of sales, down from 15 days in the second quarter but above the 10 days of a year ago.

He further rejected the idea that progress on Full Self-Driving is what is moving cars. Unsupervised autonomy, he wrote, is becoming table stakes across the industry, and without advertising, few buyers outside Tesla’s own supporters know how far the system has come.

Still Short Of The Old Volume Story, Says Gerber

Gerber said the run rate remains below 2 million vehicles a year. That pace, he said, is “massively disappointing” relative to expectations set several years ago, even with gasoline prices elevated.

A Milder Winter, Says Munster

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management framed Tesla’s 2% decline as evidence that an “EV winter” is thawing: the Street had looked for a drop of about 7%, and he expects 2027 delivery growth above 15%, versus a Street figure near 9%. He noted Rivian’s 46% increase but said its volume is still about one-twenty-fourth of Tesla’s.

“While traditional car makers like GM are reporting EVs down 70% plus y/y, Tesla was down 2% in the face of the tough tax credit comp a year ago,” Munster wrote. “Thats good news for CY27 deliveries.”

How Did TSLA, RIVN Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed within ‘normal’ levels.

Meanwhile, sentiment around RIVN was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volumes.

A Stocktwits user expects RIVN to report a large loss for the third quarter in light of lower margins and R2 scaling costs.

Another user expressed disappointment that Tesla reported only a marginal beat on estimates, highlighting the company's high valuation.

TSLA has fallen 18% year-to-date, while RIVN has dropped 27%. 

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