Tesla Stock’s Retail Chatter Builds After Weak Wednesday Finish: What’s Driving the Buzz?

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) dipped slightly on Wednesday, while retail chatter around the stock surged, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years.

Tesla saw a 17% jump in message volume on Stocktwits, making it one of the top 10 most-discussed tickers before the opening bell on Thursday, as many watchers hoped for more upside to the stock following the central bank’s announcement.

Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner on Wednesday also estimated Tesla will deliver about 460,000 vehicles in Q3, aligning with the consensus forecast of 461,000. This is largely in line with broader market expectations.

The focus, however, has shifted to Tesla’s profitability, particularly its automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits. Rosner expects only a modest quarter-over-quarter improvement, with margins potentially reaching 15.2% in Q3.

In July, Tesla’s Q2 earnings report revealed it missed estimates for the fourth straight quarter, and its automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits fell to 14.6%, down from 16.4% in Q1.

Despite this, Wolfe Research maintained a ‘Peer Perform’ rating, with projected earnings per share in the low 60-cent range, close to the consensus of 61 cents.

Tesla’s production and delivery numbers also warrant attention. The company delivered 444,000 vehicles in Q2, compared to 387,000 in Q1.

The broader EV market slowdown is adding to concerns.

CEO Elon Musk continues to push the narrative that Tesla will dominate the autonomous vehicle space, with plans to unveil a “robotaxi” next month.

Retail investors on Stocktwits, where Tesla has nearly 967,000 followers, are showing signs of waning confidence. By Thursday morning, sentiment had turned ‘bearish’ (38/100), compared to the previous day’s ‘bullish’ outlook.

Tesla shares are down more than 8% year-to-date, in stark contrast to the broader market rally driven by big tech names like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.