Tesla Stock Slides As Q1 Earnings Loom: One Wall Street Analyst Still Sees 10% More Downside

• Jefferies flagged margin pressure and higher cash burn as key concerns ahead of its Q1 earnings due Wednesday.
• The brokerage said contributions from robotaxis and humanoid robots are unlikely to support earnings meaningfully until 2027.
• The results will mark Tesla’s first quarterly update since confirming plans to wind down production of the Model S and Model X.

Tesla, Inc. heads into its first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday under pressure, following a 2% drop in the previous session. A Wall Street analyst has trimmed his vehicle delivery estimates ahead of the print and, more worryingly, expects the company to ramp up spending, a combination that could cloud the near-term outlook.

Jefferies Sees TSLA Margin Pressure, Rising Cash Burn

Jefferies raised its price target on TSLA to $350 from $300 while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating, still implying a 11% downside from current levels. The brokerage expects the EV firm to report about $21.2 billion in first-quarter revenue, a core automotive gross margin of 15.5%, an operating margin below 3%, and GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14.

It also cut its full-year delivery estimate by 3% to 1.7 million vehicles, assuming 50,000 lower-priced vehicles and 25,000 Cybercabs, with most Cybercab costs capitalized. Jefferies also expects capex to rise to $19 billion this year, more than doubling from $9 billion last year, resulting in $4.9 billion in cash burn. The brokerage said meaningful contributions from robotaxis and humanoid robots are unlikely before 2027.

Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus suggests a similarly modest earnings setup despite improving deliveries. Estimates call for about $21.4 billion in revenue, $541 million in operating income, 2.5% operating margin, and GAAP EPS of $0.16. Analysts also expect negative free cash flow of $1.58 billion for the quarter.

The upcoming results will also mark Tesla’s first quarterly earnings release since the company confirmed plans to wind down production of its Model S sedan and Model X SUV, as it shifts factory capacity towards Optimus humanoid robots.

Tesla Misses Delivery Estimates Again

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, up from 336,681 units a year earlier after last year’s Model Y transition disrupted production.

However, the company produced 408,386 vehicles, leaving output ahead of deliveries by more than 50,000 units, the widest gap in at least four years and a signal investors will likely watch closely for demand absorption.

Tesla also missed company-compiled consensus delivery expectations of 365,645 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarterly miss.

TSLA Capex Surge Signals Shift Toward Cybercab, Optimus

Tesla plans to spend more than $20 billion this year, more than double last year’s $8.5 billion, with most investment directed toward Cybercab production lines, Optimus robots, battery and lithium infrastructure and AI programs rather than its traditional EV lineup.

CEO Elon Musk called 2026 “a very big capex year” in its January earnings call, adding that the company is making “big investments for an epic future.” CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the spending would support Cybercab production, the semi-truck program, Optimus robotics, and battery supply infrastructure.

Last year, Musk said autonomy is expected to meaningfully affect financial performance around mid-2026, adding that once the impact begins, it could “go exponential from there.”

Tesla Regains EV Lead Amid Rising China Pressure

Tesla regained the global battery-electric delivery lead in the latest quarter with 358,023 vehicles, compared with 310,389 for BYD’s battery-electric lineup, after losing its broader global EV sales crown to BYD last year.

The setback followed the expiration of the U.S. $7,500 federal EV tax credit, while Chinese competitors continue offering lower-priced alternatives with bundled driver-assistance features.

Tesla is also reportedly exploring development of a smaller, lower-cost electric SUV expected to be produced initially in China and later potentially in the U.S. and Europe. The move follows the company’s earlier decision to abandon its planned $25,000 mass-market EV platform in favor of robotaxi development built on the same architecture.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user said, “back over $400 before ER my guess!“

Another user said, “imagine if Elon announces a merger between TSLA and SpaceX Wednesday”

TSLA stock has risen 63% over the past year.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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