Trilogy Metals Stock Is Headed For Best Week Ever: Will Analyst Downgrade Pour Cold Water On Gains?

Trilogy Metals stock (TMQ) is headed for its biggest weekly gain after the U.S. agreed to buy a 10% stake in the company.

The stock has gained an astonishing 215% this week, far outpacing previous advances. About 280 million shares have changed hands this week, more than thrice the previous weekly high of 88.8 million last November after Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election.

The surge came after the Trump administration agreed to buy 8.2 million units of Trilogy Metals for $2.17 apiece from Australia’s South32. The U.S. also agreed to hold warrants to buy an additional 7.5% stake in the Vancouver-based company. The investment was part of a broader $35.6 million in funding for critical energy projects in Alaska.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Trilogy Metals was in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory at the time of writing.

According to TheFly, BMO Capital analysts downgraded Trilogy Metals to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform,’ but raised the price target to $5.50 from $3. The revised price target implies a 16% downside compared to the stock’s previous close.

The brokerage reportedly flagged valuation for the downgrade following the stock's re-rating post the U.S. federal government investment. It said that while the news was "materially positive" for Trilogy, the shares are now trading at an "excess of multiples typically ascribed for development stage projects.” BMO also noted that challenges to the announcement may also emerge.

The stock was still up over 2% in premarket trading in low volumes. So far this year, the stock has jumped 464%, tracking gains of critical minerals stocks.

Alongside the investment, Trump also overturned a Biden-era decision to scrap the Ambler Road project, a 211-mile, industrial-use-only road connecting Alaska’s Dalton Highway to the mineral-rich Northwestern parts of the state.

Trilogy Metals holds a 50% stake in the joint venture Ambler Metals, which controls the Upper Kobuk Mineral Project, which contains key mineral deposits including copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver. The Ambler Road project will help the company begin mining activities.

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