TSLA Analyst Ratings Hit Highest Since 2023; ARK Reiterates $4,400 Long-Term Price Target And 80% Robotaxi Thesis

• The firm’s base-case price target stands at $4,400 per share by 2031, with Optimus humanoid robot projected to contribute around 14% of enterprise value at roughly one million units.
• Tesla’s average analyst rating has climbed to 3.67 on a 1-to-5 scale, the strongest reading since early 2023, according to Koyfin data.
• Earlier on Monday, Barclays analyst Dan Levy upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $450, up from $370, citing Tesla's merger opportunity with SpaceX.

ARK Invest’s Tasha Keeney on Monday highlighted possibilities for EV giant Tesla (TSLA) expanding its ambitions beyond robotaxis into possibly underground transportation and electric aviation, even as the firm continues to weigh robotaxis as a substantial value driver.  

ARK’s model assigns roughly 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value to robotaxis, supported by Full Self-Driving adoption among North American deliveries rising from about 55% in the second quarter to more than 75% in the third—well above typical software conversion rates.

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“FSD’s rapid adoption suggests that consumers are placing a high value on autonomy. In our view, coupled with lower prices per mile than human-driven ride-hail, the same enthusiasm will scale Tesla‘s robotaxi adoption as its network expands,” Keeney wrote.

The firm’s base-case price target stands at $4,400 per share by 2031, with Optimus humanoid robot projected to contribute around 14% of enterprise value at roughly one million units.

Analyst Ratings Reach Highest Level Since 2023

Ark’s optimism is not in isolation. Tesla’s average analyst rating has climbed to 3.67 on a 1-to-5 scale, the strongest reading since early 2023, according to Koyfin data. The figure sits above the longer-term median of 3.46 and reflects a recovery from 2024 troughs, though it remains below the prior peak near 3.94.

Earlier on Monday, Barclays analyst Dan Levy upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $450, up from $370, citing Tesla's merger opportunity with SpaceX (SPCX), stronger core business outlook, and signs of Robotaxi inflection.

Last week, BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello upgraded Tesla to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $420, up from $266. While Tesla's AI-led progress continues to unfold slowly and its "massive," multi-year cash burn has been "profoundly raising the stock's risk profile," the firm now considers a potential takeout by SpaceX (SPCX) "an overriding valuation concern."

Overall, according to Koyfin, 19 of 43 analysts covering TSLA rate it 'Buy' or higher, while 22 rate it 'Hold' and two rate it 'Sell.' The 12-month average price target on the stock is $409.27, representing a potential upside of about 4.5% from the stock’s last closing price.

Tesla-SpaceX Contemplate Merger

Tesla-SpaceX merger rumors have been running high since the start of the year, aiding optimism around the stock. Last week, on SpaceX’s quarterly earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent directors to evaluate a potential merger.

He described combining the companies as “a good idea” but said he has recused himself from the discussions because of conflicts of interest. Any deal would still require approval from both special committees, the respective boards, and shareholders. Musk, however, also warned that a deal is not a certainty and that talks are ongoing with no terms decided.

How Did TSLA Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the 'bearish' territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at 'high' levels.

TSLA stock has dropped 13%  year-to-date. 

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