TSLA Flashes Red On Technical Charts: Bearish Analyst Warns Up To 36% Stock Plunge By June After Brutal JPMorgan Call

• Tesla shares fell to a nearly seven-month low on Monday after slipping below key technical levels.
• GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson said Tesla's Fibonacci support is seen near $322, and the stock is still not oversold.
• Jim Cramer suggested JPMorgan's bearish call could mean that investors are selling TSLA stock to rotate into the SpaceX IPO.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) flashed fresh warning signals on Monday after slipping below key levels following a first-quarter (Q1) delivery miss, with one analyst projecting nearly 40% downside by June as bearish calls built after JPMorgan flagged a major downside to the stock.

TSLA stock fell more than 2% on Monday, marking its lowest level in nearly seven months.

TSLA Stock Breaks Below Key Moving Averages

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson said on X that Tesla has broken below its 20, 50 and 75-day moving averages and remains trapped in a descending channel that began after the stock’s December highs near $480. He added that Fibonacci levels point to $322 as the next key support, while momentum indicators indicate the stock is not yet oversold. Johnson said investors should watch the $322- $346 range for a potential bounce.

The analyst also said that, assuming consensus expectations for negative $1.6 billion in first-quarter free cash flow prove accurate and that prior correlations between Tesla’s free cash flow performance and its share price continue to hold, the stock could fall to $224-$269 by June 30, implying a 24%-36% downside from current levels.

He also noted that Tesla’s car sales declined year-over-year in both 2024 and 2025 and are expected to fall again in 2026. “$TSLA has made literally NO PROGRESS on ‘robotaxis’ since launching in Austin in June of last yr. It could fall another 70-80%, and STILL be massively overvalued,” Johnson said, adding that the stock trades as 288x estimated 2026 earnings versus 31x for the Magnificent Seven.

Gary Black Defends JPMorgan TSLA Call

Johnson’s technical warning follows a bearish update from JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, who reiterated an ‘Underweight’ rating and set a $145 price target after Tesla’s Q1 delivery report, implying a 60% downside to current levels.

“We ... advise investors approach TSLA shares with a high degree of caution,” Brinkman said. He also lowered 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $1.8 from $2, below consensus expectations, citing risks to demand, execution and competition as Tesla expands into lower-priced, higher-volume vehicle segments.

Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said on X, “TSLA bulls out in full force today attacking Ryan Brinkman the person. Yes he’s been wrong on TSLA for 10 years, but he’s been right on TSLA the past five years, so has some credibility.”

Jim Cramer Sees SpaceX Rotation After TSLA Call

Separately, Jim Cramer called the bearish JPMorgan call “bold” and speculated that it “must mean people are going to sell this one to buy SpaceX.” His comment follows reports that SpaceX has confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering that could become the largest IPO on record, with the company reportedly valued at about $1.75 trillion.

Tesla Misses Q1 Delivery Estimates Again

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter, missing Wall Street expectations for a second straight quarter. Deliveries rose 6% from the previous year but fell 14% from a quarter ago, marking the company’s weakest quarter since 2022 outside a Model Y production adjustment period.

The company produced 408,386 vehicles during the quarter. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries totaled 341,893 units, while Model S, Model X and Cybertruck deliveries reached 16,130 units. Tesla also deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hours of energy-storage products, down from 10.4 gigawatt-hours a year earlier and below estimates.

The results come as the U.S. electric-vehicle market adjusts to the phase-out of federal purchase incentives and competition from Chinese automakers intensifies across markets.

Baird, Canaccord See Upside In TSLA

Even as bearish calls emerged after the delivery miss, Baird maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating and lowered its price target to $538 from $548, still implying a 52% upside from the stock’s last close, according to an Investing report.

Meanwhile, Canaccord Genuity reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating and maintained its $420 price target, representing a 19% upside from current levels following the delivery update. The brokerage noted that rising gasoline prices and firmer domestic used-Tesla pricing could support future demand.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla slipped to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish’ levels over the past day amid a 490% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “I think Tesla sees mid to low $200s into SpaceX taking the attention/crown. I kind of agree with JPM thesis this morning.”

Another user claimed that TSLA is “eventually a $40 stock.”

TSLA stock has tanked 22% so far this year, ranking as the second-worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” group of equities.

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