TSLA, SPCX Eye Green Open: Gary Black Predicts $420 SpaceX Buyout Of Tesla — Sees Announcement In ‘Next Few Weeks’

• Gary Black predicted SpaceX could announce a $420-per-share, all-stock Tesla buyout within weeks, with closing potentially taking a year.
• Black sees limited Roadster earnings and brand benefits, remaining cautious about Tesla’s valuation and earnings outlook.
• Barclays sees an all-stock SpaceX acquisition as the likeliest structure, while Baird expects merger speculation to dominate Tesla’s near-term narrative.

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) shares edged higher overnight heading into Monday as Future Fund managing director Gary Black predicted SpaceX could announce an all-stock acquisition of Tesla within weeks, framing the flying Roadster reveal as a way to bring Elon Musk’s companies together.

TSLA stock rose 0.6% overnight, while SPCX gained 1.2%.

Black Predicts A $420 Tesla Takeover

“I agree with those who say the sole purpose of last night’s Roadster event was to make the case for a SPCX-TSLA merger,” Black said on X. “My guess: Announcement in next few weeks $SPCX buys $TSLA for $420/share in SPCX stock; deal could take a year to close.”

However, he made this prediction despite skepticism about the Roadster’s financial impact. Black estimated that the sports car could add $0.06 a share to Tesla’s 2029 earnings, which is just 1.1% of the consensus adjusted earnings forecast of $5.40. He also expects limited benefit to the broader brand, saying that few drivers prioritize sub-one-second acceleration or airborne flips. 

“Yes, the technology and the event itself were amazing,” he said, while questioning investor interest in a niche product still two to three years away. “Third, TSLA always sells on the news after its events and the same principle applies today,” he said.

Before the reveal, Black had also warned against a merger, saying that a stock-for-stock deal would trade at Tesla’s lower valuation multiple and that trading before completion could erode any premium paid in SpaceX shares. “We remain cautious on $TSLA due to its extended valuation, continued expected negative revisions, and our view that unsupervised autonomy becomes commoditized,” he said.

Roadster Showcase Fuels TSLA-SPCX Merger Talk

Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster also saw a similar motivation behind the Roadster showcase: “Two takeaways from tonight’s Roadster event. 1. It was an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers. 2. Elon can’t wait to bring $TSLA and $SPCX together.” 

Musk also shared the livestream with the words “Tesla x SpaceX.” Their collaboration also extends to Terafab’s proposed Giga Texas research facility, where they aim to make and test about 10 chip designs annually. “I think what we want to do with Tesla and SpaceX on the chip fab is really try some of these high-risk, high-payoff bets,” Musk said in an interview.

On the other hand, Morningstar sees more commercial promise in the Roadster than Black or Munster, saying that its engineering could draw buyers to Tesla’s wider lineup. Still, it forecasts fewer than 2,000 annual Roadster deliveries once production ramps up.

Musk targets production in 2028 after repeated delays. Performance and Thrust reservations require $50,000 and $250,000, respectively, with no guaranteed delivery. An invitation-only Rocket version is also planned.

Wall Street Weighs In On A Merger Deal 

Barclays last week identified an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla as the most likely deal structure. It outlined a possible announcement around Tesla’s annual meeting, or a separate announcement within six to 12 months. “While we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration,” the analysts said.

The firm sees a deal linking Tesla’s robotaxi and Optimus programs with SpaceX’s AI and space infrastructure, while streamlining Terafab decisions and helping Musk preserve voting control. However, shareholder approvals and antitrust review would remain potential hurdles. Baird also expects a potential SpaceX merger to dominate Tesla’s near-term narrative.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, TSLA sentiment was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while SPCX sentiment was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume. 

One bullish user noted, “$SPCX Barclays’ current scenario has SpaceX around $2.1T and Tesla around $1.5T, with SpaceX acquiring Tesla in an all-stock transaction. On those numbers, existing SpaceX shareholders would own roughly 58% of the combined company, while Tesla shareholders would get about 42%.”

A separate user said, “$SPCX If spaceX buys tesla, spacex share price will fall as they will issue more shares to pay for tesla. If tesla buys spaceX they will most likely offer a takeover premium and is eventually converted into Tesla shares.”

While TSLA stock has declined 21% year-to-date, SPCX has fallen 9% over the same period. 

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