TSLA Stock Rises Premarket As Dan Ives Predicts 80% Chance Of SpaceX Merger By 2027 – China FSD Fuels Optimism

• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said there is an “80%” chance that SpaceX eventually merges with Tesla by 2027.
• Musk said SpaceX is already offering “AI compute as a service at significant scale” and expects orbital data centers to support AI “at extremely high scale” over time.
• Tesla’s long-awaited “FSD Supervised” rollout in China added another bullish catalyst as the country recently legalized Level 3 autonomous-driving systems.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shares rose over 1% in premarket trading on Thursday as investors focused on two long-term catalysts gaining traction around CEO Elon Musk’s empire: rising speculation about a SpaceX merger, and growing optimism around Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) rollout in China.

TSLA stock jumped by more than 3% on Wednesday and is poised to record its best month since September.  

SpaceX IPO Ignites Tesla Merger Buzz

Merger talks gained steam after SpaceX publicly released its long-awaited IPO filing on Wednesday, giving investors a detailed look into Musk’s expanding ambitions across AI infrastructure, orbital computing, satellite connectivity and autonomous systems.

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of about $2 trillion and could raise as much as $80 billion in what could be the largest offering ever.

Speaking during an interview with Anthony Pompliano, the CEO of Professional Capital Management, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said he sees a high probability that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine. “We've said 80% that SpaceX to merge eventually with Tesla in 2027,” he said.

According to Ives, the logic behind a future merger revolves around data, AI and compute infrastructure rather than traditional automotive or aerospace synergies.

“Data is the new oil and gold,” Ives said, adding that combining Tesla’s autonomous-driving and robotics data with SpaceX’s satellite, connectivity and AI infrastructure could create an “unmatched” competitive edge. Ives also highlighted the escalating AI arms race from OpenAI and Anthropic. “That I believe would enable Musk to really narrow the gap from a model perspective versus an Anthropic OpenAI,” he said.

The analyst said that investors are valuing SpaceX mainly on future potential for orbital infrastructure, AI and connectivity rather than its current financial profile.

Musk Eyes Orbital Data Centers For AI

Musk separately reinforced SpaceX’s growing AI focus in a post on X after reports surfaced about Anthropic’s rising revenue and profitability. “As the recently expanded partnership with Anthropic demonstrates, SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale,” Musk said.

“We are in discussions with other companies to do the same,” he added. “Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.” Anthropic has reportedly agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for compute capacity for SpaceX’s Colossus and Colossus II AI training clusters.

The SpaceX IPO filing also showed that SpaceX’s AI business lost $2.5 billion from operations during the March quarter on segment revenue of $818 million.

China FSD Rollout Fuels TSLA Optimism

Meanwhile, Tesla bulls are cheering the company’s long-awaited FSD rollout in China. Tesla recently confirmed that “FSD Supervised” is now available in China alongside several other global markets. The rollout followed Musk’s recent Beijing visit during U.S. President Donald Trump’s state trip to China.

The launch comes as competition intensifies from Chinese EV makers including BYD, Huawei and XPeng, many of which have aggressively expanded autonomous-driving features. China recently legalized Level 3 autonomous driving systems, potentially creating a more favorable environment for advanced driver-assistance tech. However, regulators have also tightened oversight of autonomous-driving marketing after several high-profile crashes involving self-driving features across the industry.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.

One user said, “seems very logical that SpaceX will merge into Tesla in coming years so that Elon gets his comp package payday on market cap vesting triggers. Just a matter of time”

Another user said, “In China, FSD subscription is different with other countries. Car owner will pay 10k to buy life time license (only works for 1 car). Think about how many cars in China. It will be a lot a lot lot of money!”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, with a 7% decline.     

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