Tesla Stock Rises Even As Goldman Sachs Sees No Delivery Growth This Year: Retail Cautious

Shares of Tesla, Inc. traded in the green Wednesday afternoon despite a bearish note from Wall Street raising concerns about the company’s ability to meet its delivery growth targets for 2024.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney indicated that intra-quarter delivery data for Tesla across key regions — U.S., Europe, and China — showed mixed demand trends. 

He noted that Tesla is not on track to meet its 2024 delivery growth objective, which requires 515,000 or more units in the fourth quarter. 

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Goldman now estimates fourth-quarter deliveries to come in at 510,000 units, down from a previous estimate of 515,000, and below the consensus estimate.

Delaney thinks Tesla is likely to employ incentives to boost sales volume. 

The analyst suggested that reducing Model Y inventory ahead of a rumored refresh, expected in early 2025, might be a motivating factor behind such incentives. 

Still, Goldman Sachs maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on Tesla, with a price target of $250.

Retail investor sentiment tracked by Stocktwits on Tesla shifted back to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish' as of 2:00 pm ET, signaling some skepticism within the community. 

Conversations on the platform reflected a range of opinions, with some followers expecting the stock to hit $400 soon, while others forecast a dip back to the $280s.

On Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, management expressed confidence that deliveries would grow year-over-year (YoY). 

Tesla’s November sales in China, one of its most critical markets, slipped 4.3% YoY, with 78,856 domestically made cars sold, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. However, the figure represented a 15% increase from October. 

Competition from domestic EV manufacturers also continues to intensify, impacting Tesla’s market share in the region.

Despite several concerns, Tesla’s stock has climbed more than 42% year-to-date, outperforming broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. 

Investor optimism has mainly been fueled by the Nov. 5 U.S. election results, with some banking on CEO Elon Musk’s rapport with President-elect Donald Trump to accelerate federal standards for self-driving cars, among other things. 

If introduced, these regulations could streamline Tesla’s rollout of its robotaxi service, which is slated for late 2025.

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