Tesla Stock Rises Even As Goldman Sachs Sees No Delivery Growth This Year: Retail Cautious

Shares of Tesla, Inc. traded in the green Wednesday afternoon despite a bearish note from Wall Street raising concerns about the company’s ability to meet its delivery growth targets for 2024.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney indicated that intra-quarter delivery data for Tesla across key regions — U.S., Europe, and China — showed mixed demand trends. 

He noted that Tesla is not on track to meet its 2024 delivery growth objective, which requires 515,000 or more units in the fourth quarter. 

Goldman now estimates fourth-quarter deliveries to come in at 510,000 units, down from a previous estimate of 515,000, and below the consensus estimate.

Delaney thinks Tesla is likely to employ incentives to boost sales volume. 

The analyst suggested that reducing Model Y inventory ahead of a rumored refresh, expected in early 2025, might be a motivating factor behind such incentives. 

Still, Goldman Sachs maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on Tesla, with a price target of $250.

Retail investor sentiment tracked by Stocktwits on Tesla shifted back to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish' as of 2:00 pm ET, signaling some skepticism within the community. 

Conversations on the platform reflected a range of opinions, with some followers expecting the stock to hit $400 soon, while others forecast a dip back to the $280s.

On Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, management expressed confidence that deliveries would grow year-over-year (YoY). 

Tesla’s November sales in China, one of its most critical markets, slipped 4.3% YoY, with 78,856 domestically made cars sold, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. However, the figure represented a 15% increase from October. 

Competition from domestic EV manufacturers also continues to intensify, impacting Tesla’s market share in the region.

Despite several concerns, Tesla’s stock has climbed more than 42% year-to-date, outperforming broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. 

Investor optimism has mainly been fueled by the Nov. 5 U.S. election results, with some banking on CEO Elon Musk’s rapport with President-elect Donald Trump to accelerate federal standards for self-driving cars, among other things. 

If introduced, these regulations could streamline Tesla’s rollout of its robotaxi service, which is slated for late 2025.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.