UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes On Guidance After CEO Shake-Up, Medicare Stumble

UnitedHealth Group will report second-quarter results Tuesday morning in one of the most closely watched healthcare earnings releases this quarter, and it is currently one of the top trending tickers on Stocktwits.

The report comes as the company battles regulatory scrutiny, weakening margins, and investor distrust following a leadership shake-up and a $270 billion collapse in market value over the past year, Barron’s reported.

According to Koyfin estimates, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to fall 38% year-over-year to $4.45, while GAAP EPS is projected at $4.22. Revenue is forecast to grow just 1.8% to $111.59 billion, with EBITDA and EBIT seen down nearly 30%.

Investors are focused on whether the company will reinstate full-year 2025 guidance after withdrawing it in May. At that time, UnitedHealth also replaced CEO Andrew Witty with board chairman Stephen Hemsley, who previously led the company from 2006 to 2017.

UnitedHealth’s once-reliable Optum Health unit is under pressure after its first quarter profits plunged. Analysts attributed the drop to missteps in adjusting to new Medicare reimbursement rules (V28), which restrict billing flexibility for chronic conditions. While rivals adapted early, UnitedHealth appeared behind the curve, raising concerns about operational execution, CNBC reported.

Legal risk is also in focus. The company last week confirmed it is cooperating with civil and criminal investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice into its Medicare Advantage billing practices. 

The DOJ is probing whether UnitedHealth used clinicians to boost patient risk scores and increase federal payments.

The company has said it is cooperating with investigators, and Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes said the stock is trading as if UnitedHealth could be excluded from Medicare and Medicaid, but called that outcome unlikely, expecting instead a financial settlement and a corporate integrity agreement.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for UnitedHealth was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user noted that short interest in UnitedHealth shares is elevated, suggesting a potential short squeeze if earnings surprise to the upside. The user added that a strong report could push the stock toward $350 in the near term.

Another user is anticipating a dramatic move in the session following the release, saying UnitedHealth could stage “the craziest reversal” in the healthcare sector within hours.

UNH’s stock has declined 44.1% so far in 2025, among the worst S&P 500 performers this year.

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