Guggenheim CIO Reportedly Warns Oil Shock Could Drag US Stocks By 10% – S&P 500 Eyes 5th Weekly Loss

• Guggenheim CIO Anne Walsh said that the bigger risk to U.S. equities is a shift in investor sentiment, not inflation.
• Since the Iran war began in February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite indexes are all down by nearly 7%.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently headed toward their fifth straight weekly loss, with both the indexes down 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Guggenheim’s Chief Investment Officer, Anne Walsh, reportedly warned on Friday that U.S. stocks could be headed for a decline of about 10% if crude oil prices remain persistently elevated amid the ongoing Iran war.

According to a Bloomberg report, Walsh said that if crude oil prices remain around the $100 a barrel level for three months, U.S. equities would face a meaningful downside.

Since the Iran war began in February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite indexes are all down by nearly 7%.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are currently headed toward their fifth straight weekly loss, with both the indexes down 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Investor Sentiment Shift A Bigger Risk, Says Walsh

Walsh added that the bigger risk to U.S. equities is a shift in investor sentiment, not inflation.

“When people are paying more at the pump, they start making choices. That can bleed into consumer sentiment, and ultimately into market sentiment,” Walsh stated.

Persistently higher fuel prices could begin weighing on household budgets and investor psychology, potentially derailing the “buy the dip” dynamic that has supported markets recently, she said.

“If you lose the buy-the-dip mentality of the retail investor, that could definitely have a big effect. And then we could see easily a 10% selloff,” Walsh added.

The Guggenheim CIO recommended investors diversify, pointing to fixed-income securities, equities, and gold as potential avenues for investment.

Boiling Crude

Crude oil prices have soared since the Iran war broke out in February, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures maturing in May gaining nearly 46%, while Brent crude futures expiring in June soared about 43%.

At the time of writing, WTI crude futures expiring in May were hovering around $98 per barrel, rising nearly 4%, while Brent crude futures expiring in June were up 2% to hover around $104 a barrel.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) rose 4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) was up about 3% at the time of writing.

Trump Extends Pause On Iran Energy Strikes

President Donald Trump on Thursday extended the pause on Iran energy strikes by 10 days to April 6, 2026, saying that this was in accordance with a request by the Iranian government.

“Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media and others, they are going very well,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down 0.89%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 1.22%; and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 0.86%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&P 500 ETF was in the ‘extremely bearish’ territory.

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