USO, BATL, TPET Rise Premarket As Brent Eyes Record Month – Macquarie Flags $200 Oil Risk If Iran Conflict Drags

• BATL rose over 10% premarket, USO gained about 2%, TPET added nearly 2%, while INDO slipped over 1% and EONR fell about 1%.
• Brent is on track for a record monthly gain in March, up about 51%, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy flows.
• Trump extended by 10 days the deadline for strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing the timeline for potential action to April 6.

Major oil stocks and index funds traded mostly higher in premarket trading on Friday as crude pushed higher with traders bracing for the Iran war potentially stretching into April and attacks continuing across the Middle East.

Battalion Oil (BATL) rose over 10% in premarket trading, while the United States Oil Fund (USO) gained about 2% and Trio Petroleum (TPET) added nearly 2%. Indonesia Energy (INDO) slipped over 1%, while EON Resources (EONR) fell about 1%.

Brent Nears Record Monthly Gain

Global benchmark Brent climbed toward $110 a barrel after erasing an early drop, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $95, as traders weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to extend by 10 days a deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, prolonging uncertainty over the course of the conflict into next month.

Brent is now on pace for a record monthly gain in March, having surged about 51% so far this month as the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. The near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely restricted flows of energy vital to the global economy, sending crude and refined-product prices higher.

Regional Attacks Keep Oil Markets On Edge

Meanwhile, attacks continued across the region on Friday, with Israel striking Iran’s primary missile and sea-mine production facility in Yazd, Kuwait reporting drone damage at Shuwaikh port, and Saudi Arabia intercepting drones in its eastern region.

Trump extended by 10 days the deadline for potential strikes on Iranian energy sites to April 6, allowing more time for diplomacy while the U.S. builds forces in the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units and elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division. The Pentagon is also reportedly considering sending up to 10,000 additional troops.

Trump said Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Before the conflict, the waterway carried roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and about 5 million barrels per day of refined products.

Risk Premium Holds In Oil Markets

Commerzbank said the latest extension has reduced immediate escalation risks but has not increased expectations for a near-term deal. “The muted market reaction in Asia underscores that a deal over the next 10 days has not become more likely with Trump just seen buying time to deploy more troops,” he said.

Sucden Financial said the “risk premium” in energy markets remains firmly intact on the back of continued strikes and no progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Macquarie Flags $200 Oil Scenario

Macquarie Group said the duration of the conflict remains the key driver for oil’s trajectory. The bank estimates a 60% probability the war could finish by the end of March, but sees 40% odds of a longer conflict potentially lasting through June. A prolonged disruption scenario could drive oil to $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the bank said.

“If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” Macquarie said. 

What Is The Retail Mood On Stocktwits?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for USO was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, for INDO and TPET was ‘bearish’ amid ‘extremely low’ message volume, for EONR was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume, while BATL saw ‘bullish’ sentiment amid ‘high’ message volume.

Over the past year, BATL surged about 360%, USO gained 55%, INDO rose 40%, EONR roughly doubled, while TPET fell 46%.

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