USO, TPET, EONR, INDO Jump Premarket: Analysts Call Trump's Hormuz Deadline A 'Ticking Time Bomb' For Oil Supply

• TPET jumped 15%, EONR gained 13%, USO rose 4%, while BATL and INDO each added 3% in premarket trading on Monday.
• Brent has surged over 50% since the escalation of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran in late February.
• Analysts warned that floating storage buffers are shrinking and Hormuz disruptions could push prices higher still.

Major oil stocks and index funds climbed in premarket trading on Monday as crude held near three-year highs after U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power infrastructure, raising fears of deeper supply disruptions.

Shares of Trio Petroleum (TPET) rose 15%, followed by EON Resources (EONR), which jumped 13%. The United States Oil Fund (USO) gained 4%, while Battalion Oil (BATL) and Indonesia Energy (INDO) each rose 3%.

Brent crude traded above $113 per barrel, extending gains for a fifth straight session, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $100.

Brent Surges Over 50% Since Iran Conflict Escalation

Crude strengthened after Trump warned Iran to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on power infrastructure, while Tehran said it would target key regional assets if attacks proceed.

The conflict has now entered its 24th day, already lasting twice as long as a similar crisis last year involving the same parties. Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, Brent has surged more than 50%.

Investors are also navigating mixed policy signals after Trump, shortly before issuing the ultimatum, said he was considering “winding down” U.S. military efforts, adding to uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory.

Analysts See Prolonged Gulf Supply Disruptions Ahead

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said on X that refined-product markets continue to highlight tightening supply conditions even as crude initially remained supported by floating storage accumulated earlier in the conflict. He added that the early supply buffer from oil stranded at sea “is now being steadily eroded.”

Meanwhile, UBS said on Friday that uncertainty around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continues to signal expectations for prolonged supply disruptions from the Gulf region.

The brokerage warned that even rerouting the pipeline may not fully offset the impact due to limited storage capacity, while tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain despite efforts by the U.S. and its allies. UBS said a planned 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release by OECD countries would likely offset only part of the disruption, especially as refinery output cuts in the Middle East begin affecting markets in Asia and Europe.

UBS expects Brent to climb well above its $90 per barrel end of June forecast in the near term if supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist and scarcity fears intensify.

Hormuz Deadline: ‘Ticking Time Bomb’

Barclays said threats targeting energy infrastructure highlight the risks of compounding the effects of supply disruptions across the region. “Reluctant diplomacy and the potential for ground troops could exacerbate the situation.” 

Meanwhile, IG Australia said Trump’s ultimatum has placed a “48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty” over global markets. The firm added that strikes on Iran’s power grid could disrupt export terminals, pumping stations, and refinery operations, potentially making any blockade economically and politically unsustainable for Tehran.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for USO, INDO, TPET, and BATL remained ‘bearish’, with message volume ranging from ‘normal’ to ‘extremely low’. In contrast, sentiment for EONR was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

Over the past year, BATL has surged over 1,000%, while EONR, USO, and INDO gained 66%, 65%, and 47%, respectively. In contrast, TPET declined 27% over the same period.

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