HOOD Vs COIN – Stocks Could Rally 80% With Prediction Market Growth Driving ‘Asymmetric Upside’, Says Bernstein

• COIN and HOOD stocks rose in morning trade amid a broader rally in the cryptocurrency and equity markets on Tuesday. 
• Bernstein assigned price targets to both stocks that represented an upside of over 80% from Monday’s close, much larger than the consensus estimates of showing a potential upside of around 30%.
• Bernstein forecast that the both stocks are set for massive gains as key distribution players for prediction markets. 

Shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) rallied on Tuesday morning, while the broader equities and cryptocurrency markets also shot higher. According to Bernstein, the stocks have a potential upside of over 80% each. 

In a note to investors cited by TheBlock, Bernstein forecast that the prediction markets sector could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030, up from $51 billion in 2025. The firm cited regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and a structural liquidity edged over traditional gaming markets for its bullish outlook.

The firm said that Coinbase and Robinhood have emerged as key distribution layers for prediction markets, giving an ‘Outperform’ rating to both stocks. It placed a price target of $130 on COIN shares and $330 on HOOD’s stock, implying an upside of around 81% and 89% from Monday’s close.

HOOD, COIN Gain Ground Alongside Bitcoin Rally

HOOD’s stock jumped nearly 10% in morning trade on Tuesday after Bitcoin (BTC) hit an intra-day high of over $75,800. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Robinhood remained in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, while chatter rose to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ levels. 

COIN’s stock rallied 6.3% in morning trade, with retail sentiment rising to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter. 

Prediction Markets Could Unlock New Revenue Streams For Robinhood

Bernstein's projected prediction market growth, alongside "high confidence" in a broader crypto recovery, could drive "asymmetric upside" HOOD’s stock. It said that Robinhood’s prediction markets hub, which is powered by Kalshi, saw $350 ARR within 12 months of launch. 

The firm noted that HOOD’s weak first quarter (Q1) print has already been priced in HOOD's approximate 50% drawdown since the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, and it expects the market to be forward-looking as trading volumes recover in the second quarter (Q2) and beyond.

"We expect prediction market revenue to increase from ~$150Mn in 2025 to ~$586Mn in 2026E (286% YoY), accounting for ~17% of transaction-based revenues and ~10% of total revenue in 2026E," Bernstein wrote. "We expect 2026 to be catalyst-rich for prediction market volumes as the U.S. hosts the Football World Cup in the summer and political activity heats up in H2 on U.S midterm elections."

Wall Street Cuts Price Targets On COIN, HOOD Ahead Of Q1 Earnings

Both stocks have faced downward revisions from other Wall Street analysts this month ahead of their first quarter (Q1) earnings. On Monday, Truist cut Robinhood’s price target to $100 from $120, citing weaker crypto prices and trading volatility, and kept a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares. Last week, Morgan Stanley also lowered its outlook for Robinhood to $95 from $147, while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating.

Citizens lowered its price target on Robinhood’s stock to $155 from $180 and kept an ‘Outperform’ rating on the shares. It also cut the price target for Coinbase to $355 from $400, with an ‘Outperform’ rating.

Consensus estimates tracked by Koyfin place Robinhood’s average analyst price target at $102.94, representing a potential 30% upside from current levels. The stock is covered by 27 analysts, with four rating it ‘Strong Buy’, 15 giving it a ‘Buy’ rating, five recommending ‘Hold’, and the other three rating it a ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell’.

Meanwhile, consensus estimates place Coinbase’s average analyst price target at $237.91, representing a potential 28% upside from current levels. The stock is covered by 34 analysts, with three rating it ‘Strong Buy’, 18 giving it a ‘Buy’ rating, 10 recommending ‘Hold’, and the other three rating it a ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell’.

HOOD’s stock has fallen more than 32% this year, while COIN’s stock is down nearly 20% year-to-date.

Read also: Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin As US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Spark Over $400 Million Crypto Short Squeeze

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