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Shares of UWM Holdings and Two Harbors jumped nearly 6% on Monday after an analyst at BTIG expressed confidence that UWM’s deal with Two Harbors will go through.
BTIG said that it is "relatively confident" Two Harbors (TWO) shareholders will approve the merger when it goes to vote on March 16, as per an investor note.
The brokerage firm also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on UWM Holdings with a $10 price target after the company upped its revenue outlook ahead of the merger vote. UWM is "one of the more compelling near-term opportunities" at current share levels, the analyst told investors. The firm sees the stock rebounding over 10% "fairly quickly if interest rate volatility stabilizes."
UWM Holdings in December had announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which UWM will acquire TWO in an all-stock transaction for $1.3 billion in equity value, based on a fixed exchange ratio of 2.3328x.
The deal, if approved, is expected to provide UWM with expanded servicing expertise and scale as it continues to expeditiously bring servicing in-house. It will also give $176 billion unpaid principal balance (UPB) MSR portfolio, nearly doubling its existing mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio to approximately $400 billion, which will create significant recurring revenues, and the opportunity for approximately $150 million of cost and revenue synergies on an annual basis to help drive meaningful earnings accretion.
Upon completion of the transaction, UWM shareholders will own approximately 87% of the combined company on a pro forma fully diluted basis, while TWO shareholders will own approximately 13%.
Retail sentiment around UWM and TWO trended in ‘bullish’ territory amid ‘normal’ and ‘high’ message volume, respectively.
Shares in UWMC and TWO have fallen 7.3% and 6.8% so far in 2026.