Why Estée Lauder Stock Bulls Are Buzzing About Trump’s Fed Pick Kevin Warsh

• On Friday, Trump selected former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to head the U.S. central bank.
• Warsh has an Estee Lauder connection and is married to the beauty company’s heiress, Jane Lauder.
• Wall Street expects Estee Lauder’s net revenue to grow 5.5% to $4.22 during the second quarter.

Shares of Estée Lauder Companies Inc. jumped more than 42% last year, snapping a three-year losing streak, largely driven by a leadership change and new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie's early execution of a turnaround strategy at the MAC lipstick maker. The company has been grappling with weak demand in the United States and Asia-Pacific, making the rebound particularly notable.

Momentum has carried into this week, with Estée Lauder shares already up about 4%. Part of that strength is tied to anticipation ahead of the company's quarterly earnings report, due on Thursday. But an unexpected factor has also entered the conversation: social media users on X have been touting the stock as indirectly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's pick for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, adding a speculative layer to recent gains.

Kevin Marsh And The Estée Lauder Connection

On Friday, Trump selected former Fed Governor Warsh to head the U.S. central bank after Jerome Powell's leadership term ends in May. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is central casting, and he will never let you down," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Warsh, in fact, has an Estée Lauder connection: he is married to the beauty company's heiress, Jane Lauder, the granddaughter of cosmetics legend Estée Lauder and a former executive vice president of the company with a net worth of $2.8 billion, according to Forbes.

A user on X on Wednesday noted that EL stock has enjoyed "already a solid swing" from Warsh's connection with the Lauders.

Another user on the platform said that 86% of the company's votes and 38% of its shares are held by the Lauder family, and that Jane is the "main heiress of Lauder."

EL's Earnings Snapshot

De La Faverie, who was appointed CEO in 2024, has been working to steer Estée Lauder through a turnaround as demand for cosmetics and premium fragrances softens amid more selective consumer spending. Since taking the helm, she has focused on revitalizing the product pipeline and broadening distribution to reignite growth.

Under her leadership, the company has launched several new products and entered into a partnership with Amazon to sell Estée Lauder products on the e-commerce platform, a move aimed at expanding reach and boosting sales. However, some brands continue to face headwinds. Clinique, the company's skincare label, has been pressured by slowing travel retail sales in Asia and by U.S. consumers trading down to more affordable skincare and beauty alternatives.

For the December quarter, Wall Street expects Estée Lauder's net revenue to have risen 5.5% to $4.22 billion in the second quarter. Analysts also estimate earnings per share of $0.83, up from $0.62 in the same period a year earlier, according to data from Fiscal AI.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on Estée Lauder jumped to 'bullish' from 'extremely bearish' territory a week ago, with message volumes at 'high' levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

In the last 24 hours, retail message volume on the stock more than doubled on Stocktwits, and over the past year, the ticker saw a 28% spike in followers on the platform.

Shares of Estée Lauder have rocketed 86% in the last 12 months.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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