Why Evercore Founder Roger Altman Believes There's A Massive Blind Spot In Current Market Pricing

• Roger Altman highlighted that U.S. markets face a unique tension, balancing a solid domestic economy against escalating geopolitical risks.
• Strong consumer spending and heavy AI-related capital investment have helped equities remain resilient.
• Altman cautioned that without a diplomatic resolution, prolonged tension could trigger a market adjustment.

Roger Altman, founder and senior chairman of Evercore, said on Wednesday that financial markets are navigating a period of uncertainty as strong domestic economic conditions clash with rising geopolitical tensions. 

Speaking to CNBC, Altman outlined how the opposing forces are shaping investor sentiment and market performance. 

The “30-Day” Assumption Faces Reality

Altman’s assessment suggests investors are relying too heavily on short-term assumptions about the Iran conflict, even as conditions on the ground point to a more extended disruption.

“Most macro forecasters have built in about a 30-day conflict in terms of duration assumption and therefore haven’t adjusted their forecast, which is one of the reasons why equities aren’t all that weak.”

-Roger Altman, Founder and Senior Chairman of Evercore

Altman spoke about the conflict in the Middle East as the U.S. attack on Iran has entered its third week without any resolution. 

At the time of writing, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures maturing in May traded 0.8% higher at nearly $95 a barrel, and Brent crude futures expiring in May inched 0.9% at $104 a barrel.

Markets Lag Behind Emerging Risks

Despite rising tensions, equities have remained relatively resilient. Altman attributes this to momentum carried over from a strong pre-conflict environment, including steady consumer demand and robust capital spending with the AI boom.

“There are two colliding crosscurrents flowing through financial markets right now. One is that before this conflict began, the US economy was quite solid, Altman added. 

However, he warned that if a diplomatic resolution fails to emerge soon, markets could face a sharp reset. Altman warned that reopening the vital shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz could prove challenging without international coordination. He indicated that a unilateral move by the United States may not be sufficient, and a negotiated ceasefire could be necessary to restore stability in the region.

U.S. equity futures edged higher in early trade on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up 0.1%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) inched 0.0.1% higher. However, retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the S&P 500 ETF was in ‘extremely bearish’ territory.

Also See: Disney’s New CEO Josh D’Amaro Takes Over: Will He Deliver On The Big Bets In Experiences And AI?

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Share

·

Add us on