‘Widow Maker’ Natural Gas And ‘Poverty Grass’ Can Wipe Out Commodity Traders, Veteran Analyst Says – Points To Safer Options

• In an interview with Stocktdwits, Darin Newsom said newer traders are treating complex commodities like momentum trades.
• He stated that natural gas volatility is driven by structural factors, including storage cycles, weather, and export dynamics.
• Wheat prices are shaped by global supply conditions that are not easily captured in headlines, he added.

Natural gas and wheat, which are some of the most actively traded U.S. commodities, are flashing fresh warning signs for speculative traders chasing short-term moves. An analyst warns that these remain notoriously difficult to trade profitably. 

“Natural gas is called the widow maker, and wheat is called poverty grass — not just for those who grow it, but for those who actually try to trade it and make money off of it,” senior market analyst Darin Newsom told Stocktwits in an interview with Michele Steele.  “These are the hard realities people are going to have to learn."

Over the past week, natural gas has moved with geopolitical headlines around the U.S.-Iran war, while wheat has pushed near multi‑month highs on tightening global supply, heightening the risk of blow‑ups for anyone treating these as simple swing trades.

Why Is Natural Gas Called A ‘Widow Maker’?

Natural gas has a reputation in commodity markets as the “widow-maker.” Its market price action is sensitive to a mix of factors, such as storage cycles, weather shocks, LNG export flows, and power‑demand switching, all of which can shift rapidly and often simultaneously, leading to violent spikes. 

For instance, CME Group reported that natural gas futures and options averaged over 1.3 million contracts per day in January, with single‑day options volumes going as high as 849,000, near‑record levels driven by extreme winter weather and storage swings.

“This is not a market you trade off headlines,” Newsom stated, noting that its internal dynamics often override short-term narratives. Even experienced traders and hedge funds have historically struggled to find the edge.

Natural gas futures moved 1.86% higher in midday trade, to around $2.90, reflecting a fragile, weather‑driven rebound after a choppy quarter. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the commodity trended in ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter.

Why Is Wheat Trading More Complex Than It Looks?

Wheat, on the other hand, has a different but equally cautionary profile. Its pricing is deeply tied to global supply dynamics, including the Black Sea production, Australian weather, US Plains conditions, and export competition from the EU and Argentina. 

Newsom said that none of these factors are visible in headlines, making it harder to interpret. According to him, the forward curve can contangoed for reasons that require genuine agricultural knowledge to interpret. Contango happens when prices for contracts further out on the futures curve are higher than those for the spot and front-month prices. This usually occurs when markets are oversupplied.

“If you didn’t grow up in a wheat field or out in the middle of South Central Kansas, and you just view it as an opportunity to jump in and out of — it’s called poverty grass for a reason,” Newsom stated. The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets update noted that food prices, including grains, have remained elevated versus the broader commodity basket.

Wheat futures edged 0.2% higher in midday trade, with retail sentiment on Stockwits around the commodity trending in ‘bearish’ territory on Wednesday morning.

Where The Smarter Money May Be Moving 

While natural gas and wheat remain high-risk commodity trades, Newsom flagged areas where fundamentals appear clearer. Energy markets continue to show strong demand amid the geopolitical instability, while precious metals like gold and silver continue to attract attention with global banks continuing to add to reserves

“I would say the basis is probably strongest in the energy sector. And I think the actual cash value of metals, particularly gold and silver, are going to start to attract. We continue to hear that global central banks are loading up on gold. I think that’s a play that’s just waiting to start moving the other direction again.” 

– Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst, Barchart

He added that in agriculture, soybean oil is currently in backwardation, where nearby contracts trade at higher prices than deferred contracts. This merely indicates a tight near-term supply picture driven by biodiesel demand from the energy sector.  

“With soybean oil moving higher, soybeans don't really have much choice but to tag along,” Newsom said. Soybean futures edged 0.15% higher on Wednesday, while soybean oil futures gained 0.6%. Retail sentiment around both trended in ‘bearish’ territory on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

Newsom’s note to the traders is that while commodities like natural gas and wheat may offer opportunities, without a deep understanding of the factors at play, they could easily turn into costly lessons.

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