AXSM Axsome Therapeutics Inc

$AXSM Axsome: Auvelity for major depressive disorder and agitation in Alzheimer's dementia Weekly TRx grew +1% w/w to 21,200, +39% Y/Y, and rolling 12-wk +36% Y/Y New prescriptions (NRx) / TRx were 59% for the week

$AXSM I've been looking more closely at the Auvelity weekly IQVIA numbers, and I'm actually a little less concerned about the raw numbers than I was, although there is still a significant question that needs answering. Through the first 12 weeks of Q3, IQVIA shows 239,600 Auvelity TRx versus 216,648 during the first 12 weeks of Q2. That's about 10.6% sequential growth. In fact, Q3 has already exceeded the entire Q2 IQVIA total of 235,448 with one week still remaining. So Auvelity isn't really flat quarter over quarter. The bigger question is why we aren't seeing more acceleration considering the ADA launch and the substantially expanded sales force. One thing that stands out when looking at the historical data is the difference between IQVIA prescriptions and the numbers Axsome ultimately reports. In Q2, IQVIA showed 235,448 TRx while Axsome reported approximately 266,000. That means IQVIA captured only about 88.5% of the company-reported number. (Continued)

$AXSM Axsome: Auvelity for major depressive disorder and agitation in Alzheimer's dementia count was 21,400 Weekly TRx grew +1% w/w, +35% Y/Y, and rolling 12-wk +36% Y/Y (Exhibit 10) New prescriptions (NRx) / TRx were 58% for the week

$AXSM Auvelity Q3 Prescription Data – Is the ADA Launch Gaining Traction? With Q3 complete, the weekly Auvelity TRx spreadsheet. IQVIA reported approximately 260,800 prescriptions, up 10.8% from Q2's 235,448. Growth remains solid, although we haven't seen the dramatic acceleration some expected following the ADA launch. The weekly trend is encouraging. Q3 started averaging approximately 19,400 TRx per week and finished 20,700, with the final three weeks exceeding 21,000. Axsome also previously indicated NBRx reached approximately 3,800 per week versus a Q2 average near 3,000, although NBRx isn't included in the attached spreadsheet. The biggest wildcard is the undercount. In Q2, IQVIA captured 235,448 prescriptions versus Axsome's 266,000, a difference exceeding 30,000. With ADA prescriptions potentially flowing through long term care and closed door pharmacies, that discrepancy could be widening. If the Q2 reporting ratio persists, Q3 prescriptions could approach 295,000. (Continued)

$AXSM Auvelity is the second highest medication on drugs. com based on ratio of positive to negative reviews. Couple of insights: - Auvelity is the only non-controlled substance of the top medications. Most other drugs are opium and methamphetamine derivatives - no wonder get good reviews :-) - real life experience mirrored clinical trials. The most common feedback from both patients and clinicians is the rapid onset of action, often within days, unlike traditional antidepressants take weeks/months - Auvelity continues to grow market share in a crowded field of at least 60 approved meds with multiple cheap generics. While there are questions on ADA ramp (as there were in 2023 on MDD), i believe we will see even stronger uptake in this market simply because it's a superior and safer drug in a desperately needed space.

$AXSM My gut tells me that a long time institutional holder didn’t like what they saw from management recently. Basically over-promising results andsales disarray. The SP was way ahead of itself with a higher multiple than similar biotech, so they used derivatives to help blunt the pain as they sold shares. Others may have hopped aboard the short train, although there was barely a budge in open interest from August. The rout is overdone imo As the company is not imploding as it appears. Painful nonetheless

$AXSM I have not been posting on AXSM, but I also have not sold any. Liked the new PT of $316 that was issued today.

$AXSM here some good news I think: RBC Capital has directly addressed AXSM’s selloff and the disappointing Auvelity prescription trends. RBC maintains Outperform and $295 price target In an October 14 research update, RBC reiterated its Outperform rating and $295 target, representing approximately 89% upside from yesterday’s $156.32 closing price. More importantly, RBC offered an explanation for the unusually weak stock performance. * AXSM declined approximately 28% over the preceding month, compared to 6% for the XBI biotech index. * Disappointing RX trends have contributed to the selloff. * RBC attributes the RX weakness to seasonality and medication-sampling dynamics, rather than a fundamentally unsuccessful Alzheimer’s agitation launch. * RBC continues to estimate a $2.3 billion Alzheimer’s agitation revenue opportunity by 2035. * The firm considers AXSM materially undervalued and believes reduced expectations create an opportunity for Q3 results to exceed forecast

$AXSM rough week. Have a great weekend think about other things more important than a daily share price. 🤙🏼

$AXSM small sample issues aside, some insights from the MR Report's psychiatrist with 2 and ~6 patients on Auvelity and Rexulti, respectively: - Auvelity holds 25% of the FDA approved drug market, less than 3 months on the market vs Rexulti's 3yr run as the only approved drug. That's a huge inroads in such a short amount of time. - Auvelity works faster and is well tolerated, with the question effectively whether some of the Rexulti patients would switch to Auvelity, in addition to other ADA patients not on treatment. If we see directionally similar trends across the broader ADA treatment landscape, Auvelity will sooner than later completely dominate this market. Good things are coming.

$AXSM Note the comment in Wells Fargo commentary underpinning the Overweight rating and $256 PT. The upcoming EC can't come soon enough.

$AXSM This is not a debt story. Axsome’s balance sheet is not what explains this collapse. The real issue is whether Axsome is still the best owner of these assets. Q2 SG&A was about $208M against $218M of product revenue. Big Pharma already has the reps, payer relationships, LTC infrastructure, international reach and distribution Axsome is spending heavily to build. That is why the Board should test the market. And frankly, $300/share looks light. AXSM traded near $260 only months ago. A strategic buyer paying $325-$350 would be paying roughly $17-$18B on the basic share count for AUVELITY, SUNOSI, SYMBRAVO, the pipeline and global optionality before considering major cost synergies. If independence creates more value, prove it. If not, sell. Shareholders need to stop treating this as something we simply have to endure. Contact IR. Write the Board. Push analysts to ask about strategic alternatives. Make it clear that independence for independence’s sake is not acceptable.

$AXSM A friend just sent me a report from Wells Fargo. They had a discussion with two drs about Auvelity for Ada . They suggest within a couple of years 40-50 percent of Ada patients will be on Auvelity and although they have given to limited number thus far, tolerability good etc. The very interesting note is that their were supply issues! Never considered that. It took several weeks to get ! Could it be that the demand was much greater than the company imagined? Was the head of sales fired for giving away too many samples?

$AXSM shareholders have been patient long enough. The stock is getting hammered while AUVELITY NBRx is hitting records, the 65+ mix is moving higher, and the Alzheimer’s agitation launch appears to be gaining traction. At some point this stops being “biotech volatility” and becomes a management credibility problem. If management truly believes AUVELITY is a multibillion-dollar franchise, then prove it. Stop issuing stock through the ATM at depressed prices. Put a lid on SG&A. Show operating leverage. Authorize a meaningful buyback and let the market know management believes the stock is undervalued enough to put real capital behind that view. And give shareholders actual ADA data. We should not have to reverse-engineer the biggest commercial launch in the company’s history from Symphony numbers and conference comments. Tell us what is happening with 65+ NBRx, LTC penetration, sample-to-paid conversion, refills, persistence and overall ADA contribution.

$AXSM These are defining days for many of us and how we react now will determine if we are really long holders or speculators. I have said before and will say it again, SP of 250 will guaranty my retirement. And I know it will happen(again) and then some. I have unwaivering belief in this company and it's wonderful products an hav neve sol singl share and intend to retire at the end of either July or August of next year. What happens for the next few weeks wont be a make or brake but a year from now and further out is a timeframe I feel really optimistic about. Just my five cents on being long term holder of AXSM

$AXSM A piece from a conversation tonight with AI: "What strikes me most about your account is that the medication appears to have changed much more than your mood. It changed your relationship with your own thoughts, with reality, and ultimately with life itself. And perhaps the most remarkable part is that you can now look back on decades of suffering and have difficulty even relating to the emotional experience of the person you were. The distinction you've just made is particularly revealing: You haven't necessarily abandoned your earlier beliefs about reality, but those beliefs have lost their emotional urgency and their power over your life. That is an important distinction in understanding depression, anxiety, and the effects of treatment. I'm also struck by your gratitude toward Axsome Therapeutics. Having survived a suicide attempt and then experienced such a profound improvement gives that gratitude a very concrete meaning."

$AXSM I went back to 2024, just to see if we have seen this before. Here is what I found: Axsome Stock Price: January 29 2024 $92 April 8th 2024 - $67 29% drop in 3 months Feb 5th 2025 - $137 April 7th 2025 - $93 29% drop in 3 months January 19th 2026 $185 March 23 2026 $155.39 17% drop in 2 months All these drops were followed by a quick rebound back to the previous high. Lets hope history repeats itself

$AXSM Anyone have this week's script numbers. Mizuho implying they were good. Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) may benefit from continued momentum for its depression and Alzheimer's agitation treatment Auvelity, with prescription data showing solid weekly growth, Mizuho said Friday in a report. Data from Bloomberg Symphony and IQVIA indicated double-digit percentage increases in total and new prescriptions, suggesting Auvelity's launch in Alzheimer's agitation is off to an encouraging start, the report said. The positive trends emerge as competitor Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) reported weaker phase 2 results in Alzheimer's-related psychosis, which may help Axsome's positioning in the Alzheimer's and depression treatment markets, Mizuho said. Mizuho maintained its outperform rating on Axsome with a $316 price target.

$AXSM I’ll say this in a hushed tone: it seems history is repeating itself. The pre-market doesn’t mean much, but it makes me wonder: ........ have we hit rock bottom, and are we now on the way back up?!?!

$AXSM What is RBC and others talking about re disappointing initial script numbers!? No one knows the right numbers if they are basing it on those Friday numbers !!! I am hoping and expecting great numbers from the company