AXSM Axsome Therapeutics Inc

$AXSM Recalculating Q4 Auvelity IQVIA TRX estimate, including the historical Thanksgiving and Christmas slowdowns, I get approximately 287,200 IQVIA reported prescriptions. Adjusting for IQVIA's Q3 capture rate of 86.4%, that translates to an estimated 332,407 actual Q4 prescriptions reported by Axsome. That would put Auvelity Q4 revenue around $225M–$230M, compared with $207.6M in Q3. At those levels, Axsome could potentially reach operating break even in Q4, with net income break even possible in Q1 2027 if prescription growth continues and expenses remain controlled.

$AXSM script count 21,900 Axsome: Auvelity for major depressive disorder and agitation in Alzheimer's dementia Weekly TRx grew +3% w/w, +39% Y/Y, and rolling 12-wk +36% Y/Y (Exhibit 10) New prescriptions (NRx) / TRx were 57% for the week

$AXSM From AI this morning. Symphony showing a much more positive view than Iquivia. The updated weekly tracking metrics circulating on institutional trading desks this morning indicate that Auvelity weekly scripts have pushed to a record high of approximately 23,800 total prescriptions (TRx). the two tracking channels show a slight divergence: • Symphony Health (Bloomberg Feed): This week's Symphony data remains the preferred gauge on the Street right now. It captures the unadjusted strength of the post-Alzheimer's agitation launch and shows a double-digit percentage increase week-over-week. • IQVIA Data: The raw IQVIA print shows a slight flattening. As a reminder, this is artificial—due to the pharmacy reporting drop-off that began in October, IQVIA's capture rate is hovering at roughly 90%. Analysts covering Axsome (AXSM) are advising clients to look past the raw IQVIA noise, as the underlying demand is tracking toward record territory.

$AXSM Auvelty beat my forecast. I’m pleased with Auvelity’s performance. Expecting the sp to recover over time.

$AXSM while we still don't have direct access to Bloomberg Terminal data, some info from Wall Street firms (that do have access) trickles into the public space - i believe the attached info pulled Mizuho weekly internal reporting to their clients. Good things are coming for patient investors.

$AXSM common sense tells me that we will easily compete with rexulti. We will easily compete with trintellix for MDD. If I’m a dr and someone needs relief from depression - do I give them the one that takes 4-6 weeks to kick in and had worse side effects ? With ADD do I give them an anti-psychotic with a black box warning and go thru the motions of having to prove to govt I have no choice - or do I give Auvelity - no black box warning ? And no proof needed

$AXSM My two major holdings are axsm and RCL. RCL plummeted 25 percent ($222) in 2 months. Today it’s $295. Thats how quickly these stocks can recover . There was no good reason for the plunge. Many other stocks took big plunges as well (fortunately I don’t own them ). The market has been wacky. It won’t take long for AXSM to recover IMHO.

$AXSM I’m waiting for the ER to see Auvelity’s sales performance. As I’ve mentioned, now that Auvelity is approved for ADA, I believe that if an ex-US licensing deal isn’t announced, a sale of the company is likely. At this point, I’m simply waiting to see how things unfold. Either an ex-US deal or a sale are in the works. There’s not much more for me to add until we get some meaningful news.

$AXSM Added today at a market cap of $6.9B. Here's why: Axsome is already generating over $1B in annualized revenue (YoY run rate) and growing. A successful MDD drug (Auvelity), plus Sunosi and Symbravo already on the market. On top of that, a commercialized Alzheimer's drug that almost feels like a *nice little addition* at a $6.9B market cap. 😉 Cash flow positivity expected in 2027. A strong late-stage pipeline with multiple Phase 3 readouts expected in 2027. One narcolepsy drug currently under FDA review, with a PDUFA date of May 1, 2027. Analysts widely considered the stock significantly undervalued just days ago.

$AXSM as CEO doesn’t need the money, I’m thinking it’s all about power. He wants to be recognized and he wants to make this company into a respected, successful leader in the neuro space . Remember when out of the blue he sent out press release saying he valued the company at $16 bil (or whatever it was )? Why did he do that ? Were there low ball suitors and he was making it known not to bother with offers ? Would he sell? I’m not so sure. Would have to be a crazy offer IMHO. He’s made some missteps and he’s made some brilliant moves . Street seems to think he blew the launch . Would he sell now and go down as a failed CEO? I don’t think so. I know of no other Haitian CEO out there. He has something to prove ? I have not lost faith in him. I remain bullish. And patient.

$AXSM history often repeats with Axsome. Here is a summary of this stocktwits board discussions from late Oct-early Nov 2023. Recall the stock dropped about 42% from a then-ATH of $92 in June to $57 in early Nov. The discussions and reactions from exactly 3 years ago were similar to the last several weeks :-) If history repeats, a recovery starts today or early next week.

$AXSM Never sold á single share. Will retire next year and won't sell any shares below 250. Wonderful products, terrific outlook for the future of the company with a grea visionary at the helm. Nice to see us strike back but there is so much more coming our way

$AXSM I rely so much on Artificial Intelligence these days, to paraphrase Charlie Munger hopefully it doesn't make me more naturally stupid :-) Did quick research on AXS12. AI assigns a high probability of FDA approval and expects the medicine to provide a strong competitive alternative to current leaders. Also, since there are no approved generics in the US, there is lower risk of slower adoption and low. GTNs we've seen with Symbravo.

$AXSM Class today we learned about the word shenanigans which was aptly demonstrated for us. On Monday we will learn about the words fortitude and conviction. Enjoy Halloween and be safe.

$AXSM all I care is they are comfortable with 8B+ on Auvelity. That alone can put $700+ or higher bases on Auvelity alone.

$AXSM I know this board focuses (as I do often) on day-to-day share prices and the recent beat down. Market has repriced this company to standard fundamentals, such as earnings and P/E. BUT if Q3 yields 250 M revenue or 1 billion annualized after four years of Auvelity, what might happen with the doubling effect of ADA indication and other additions to the lineup? Two years 1B more=2B revenue. 4years $4B. With an expense plateau a little over 1B and 52M shares, not hard to see how AXSM reaches earnings of $20 per share by 2 to 3 years and $40 a share by 4-5 years. Conservative PE of 20 gives stock price of $400 in 2 to 3 years and $800 4-5years. Is this fantasy or a real possibility? Even if it’s somewhere in between, I’ll take it!

$AXSM And to think that back in June, I was saying that with AXSM, I could sleep soundly, without a care in the world. Now, the carnage is historic and unparalleled—and I’m certainly not sleeping as peacefully anymore!!! That said, the data isn’t actually bad, yet I can’t figure out the real reason for the collapse. I’m hoping for a sharp, powerful rebound!!!

$AXSM The bull case does not need heroic assumptions. Q3 revenue was $259.7M, up 52%, with AUVELITY at $207.6M, up 53%. Assume AXSM reaches just $1.5B of 2027 revenue and gets an 8x multiple: that is $12B / 52.6M shares = $228/share. At $1.8B × 9x, the math becomes $16.2B = $308/share. And 8 - 9x is conservative compared with recent CNS deals. J&J paid $14.6B for Intra-Cellular when CAPLYTA was doing $680M annually, roughly 21x sales. Pfizer paid $11.6B for Biohaven after Nurtec generated $463M, roughly 25x sales. Those prices included pipeline value, but that is exactly the point: AXSM also has a deep late-stage pipeline. AXSM does not need a 20x multiple. It does not need every drug to succeed. Continued AUVELITY growth, profitability and 1–2 pipeline wins can justify $225-$300+ using multiples far below precedent CNS takeouts. At today’s valuation, the market is pricing in a lot going wrong.

$AXSM For any BIO company, crossing 1B revenue on a forward basis is a big milestone and Axsome did it. It has been punished a lot for it doesn't deserve. Good luck to those who are investing for long run, holding for long and those who are selling as well. See you all in 3-5 years.

$AXSM After all of the price adjustments, we are still incredibly oversold. Hope the market sees the opportunity and we begin to climb.