BCS Barclays PLC

Barclays $BCS kisses its weekly moving average support triad after trading down below its resistance for 7 consecutive weeks.

$BCS Been slowly getting out. Today I got completely out. Made enough. Will watch on the sidelines.

Barclays Capital’s U.S. rates research chief Anshul Pradhan said the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could reach 6%, as the latest bond-market selloff has yet to fully reflect the risk of sustained productivity growth. Markets still assume the current high neutral rate is cyclical rather than permanent. Pradhan said massive AI investment could drive a lasting productivity acceleration, giving the Federal Reserve less reason to return policy rates to levels currently priced into the forward curve and pushing long-term yields higher. In that scenario, the 30-year yield’s fair value could eventually reach 6%, a level last seen in June 2000. The 30-year yield already rose above 5.61% on Monday, its highest since 2002, and is up a full percentage point from its March 2 low. Pradhan also noted that slower capital spending could support Treasuries by weakening growth. $BCS

Barclays told clients Friday that the artificial intelligence trade is entering a more mature phase, calling for greater diversification while viewing the Federal Reserve’s latest decision as providing more policy clarity. Strategist Emmanuel Cau said the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike was likely the least negative outcome for markets, reinforcing the central bank’s credibility and commitment to reducing inflation. He noted that the dollar has stabilized, long-term yields have eased and equities initially rose following the decision. However, Cau said global monetary conditions remain tight, which could weigh on valuations and equity returns. He added that a sustained stabilization in rates and stocks may be difficult until energy-related inflation pressures ease. On AI, Cau said the theme has shifted from a one-way trade to a more volatile environment. $BCS