SkinnyDipping
The reason is watching bears twist Bain’s AI financial research to argue that AI revenues won’t cover long-term infrastructure costs feels identical to another historic blunder—and it’s not the dot-com boom.
In 1980, $T commissioned McKinsey to estimate U.S. cell phone subscribers by the year 2000. They projected roughly 900,000 subscribers. Under pressure AT&T abandoned further development.
By 2000, there were over 100 mil subscribers in the U.S. ~1 bln globally). That miss cost AT&T $12.5 billion to buy McCaw Cellular just to re-enter the market.
What we SHOULD have learned.
Early iterations of revolutionary tech always starts out limited, and expensive.
Consultants model future demand based on present-day capabilities, completely missing paradigm shifts.
Bears mistake starting points for ceilings: Demand and hardware maturity evolve in tandem.
As hardware & software mature, what starts as a niche novelty rapidly becomes an indispensable utility.
$MU $NVDA $SPY
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