EMKAY.NSE Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
EMKAY.NSE India Q1 current account swings to $2.4bn deficit on wider trade gap, RBI data shows
MUMBAI: India’s current account logged a deficit in the April-June quarter on the back of a higher merchandise trade shortfall, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. The current account deficit stood at $2.4 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025-26, compared with a deficit of $8.6 billion, or 0.9% of GDP, in the same quarter a year ago. In the preceding quarter, the current account had recorded a surplus of $13.5 billion, or 1.3% of GDP. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $68.5 billion from $63.8 billion a year earlier, the RBI said. “Front-loaded exports to the U.S. and continuously healthy services exports helped 1Q CAD (current account deficit),” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global. Trump says India offered to reduce tariffs on US goods to zero “However, the payback from the last quarter and tariff-led hit to labour-intensive sectors could imply FY26E CAD/GDP crosses 1.2%, with further upside risks,” she added. India’s net services receipts rose to $47.9 billion in the fiscal first quarter from $39.7 billion a year earlier, the RBI said. “Services exports have risen on a y-o-y basis in major categories such as business services and computer services.” Personal transfer receipts, which are mainly remittances by Indians employed overseas, increased to $33.2 billion from $28.6 billion a year ago.
cityfalcon.com·8d ago
Sovereign bond yields surge most in 14 months on hints of higher government borrowing
Mumbai: Yields on the benchmark Indian sovereign bonds Monday climbed the most in more than 14 months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his I-Day address, announced fewer and likely lower slabs for indirect taxes. That could lower federal revenues and fuel the need to borrow more, bank treasury officials said.Yield on the 10-year paper, the risk-free reference frame for pricing loans across the economy, rose about 10 basis points in the sharpest single-day increase since early June 2024. It closed at 6.50% on Monday - a full percentage point more than the policy repo rate - from Thursday's close of 6.40%.One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point."While the tax reforms are inherently disinflationary and reflect the government's intent to push growth, the immediate worry is the likelihood of higher bond supply at a time when demand from long-only investors has been relatively muted," said V RC Reddy, head of treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, on the rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) slabs.
cityfalcon.com·22d ago
US stuns India with massive tariff as ties hit new low
• Trump slaps another 25pc on New Delhi, taking rate to a whopping 50pc • New import tax to take effect in three weeks, threatens exports worth $87bn; textile, footwear, gems and jewellery sectors hit • India rejects tariffs as ‘unjustified’, vows to protect national interests; Rahul Gandhi calls it ‘economic blackmail’ WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian oil in a move that sharply escalated tensions between the two nations after trade talks reached a deadlock. The new import tax, set to come into place in three weeks, will raise duties on some Indian exports to as high as 50pc — among the highest levied on any US trading partner. Trump’s executive order imposing the extra tariff did not mention China, which also imports Russian oil. A White House official had no immediate comment on whether an additional order covering those purchases would be forthcoming. Analysts said Mr Trump’s move marks the most serious downturn in US-India relations since his return to office in January.
cityfalcon.com·1mo ago
Tariff woes temporary, India’s equity story still intact: Seshadri Sen
Seshadri Sen of Emkay Global Financial Services discusses the Indian market. He believes tariffs pose a limited threat. A cyclical recovery in consumption is expected. This will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary stimulus. Earnings are mixed, but not alarming. Consumer discretionary and industrials are favored sectors.
cityfalcon.com·1mo ago
India reacts to Trump’s 25% tariff on the country
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a 25% tariff on goods imported from India starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty for buying Russian weapons and oil. Trump’s decision dashes hopes of a limited trade agreement between the two countries, which had been under negotiation for several months. Here are some reactions: Madhavi Arora, economist, emkay global “While the negotiations seem to have broken down, we don’t think the trade-deal haggling between the two nations is over yet. We see it more from the lens of geopolitics than purely economics and see both sides striving to get the deal done, even as the power equations may change a bit in U.S. favour.” R. Anen Banerjee, partner of economic advisory, PWC India “Higher tariffs for India compared to countries it competes with, for exports to the U.S., are going to be challenging. However, the expectation is that the trade deal is likely to be finalised shortly and hence the period of applicability of these higher tariffs could be short.“ Trump says US to impose 25% tariff on India from Aug 1 Nilesh Shah, MD Kotak Mahindra AMC “Despite the unpredictable policy making of the U.S., the market was expecting a tariff deal to work out as longer-term U.S.-India strategic interests are aligned.
cityfalcon.com·1mo ago