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The raging war in the oil-rich Middle East has rattled stock markets across the globe, with Dalal Street being no exception. After crashing more than 11% in March, Elara Securities said that historical patterns suggest limited downside for the benchmark index Nifty.The domestic brokerage cited data from the timeframes of seven major geopolitical conflicts in the past 25 years - Iraq war (2003), the Lebanon war (2006), the Libyan Civil War (2011), Russia–Ukraine (2022), Israel–Hamas war (2023), Iran–Israel conflict (2025), and the ongoing US–Iran escalation. It said that Nifty’s drawdown during the onset of conflicts has usually been capped at approximately 10%. Hence, historical patterns suggest limited downside for the benchmark index now, after the 11% crash in March.“Importantly, once early signs of normalisation emerge, markets tend to recover swiftly,” Elara said. However, it noted that the key exception to this historical pattern was in calendar years 2011-2014 when Brent sustained above $100 per barrel, leading to a prolonged sideways market without meaningful highs.