TechnoFunctional
My rationale is that such big ticket deals don't remain hidden and that will reflect in the price action.
Example: $KRTX (Karuna Therapeutics), which was acquired for $14B by BMS in late 2023 at $330/share. In early Oct, it dipped to $158 but then gradually recovered to ~$220 before its BO annoucnement at ~50% premium.
I find it highly improbable that a $15B+ deal will be signed at around 100% premium to prevaling stock price. There will be "informed" trading days/weeks before the deal is signed.
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