LPTH Lightpath Technologies, Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

$LPTH once the defense/drone sector escapes its own bear market, this stock is going to rip faces off to upside. Long

$LPTH Anduril should buy this company for about $30/share and become the ultimate US prime defense contractor

$LPTH Once again for the people in the back, PRICE DRIVES SENTIMENT. Nothing materially has changed with fundies on this one. Main change has been price. So, most peeps get uber bearish. That is the kind of dislocation that makes legends who can see through that.

$LPTH Overall, these results are clearly positive compared with the previous quarter. Revenue increased from $19.15M to $21.2M, up approximately 10.7% sequentially, while adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled from $1.1M to $2.1M. The adjusted EBITDA margin also improved from about 5.7% to 10%, indicating meaningful operating leverage. GAAP EPS improved slightly from –$0.07 to –$0.06, although it still missed expectations by $0.03. The $93.2M cash position is very strong, but much of its increase came from the June equity offering. In short: strong revenue growth and sharply improving underlying profitability, partially overshadowed by the GAAP EPS miss.

$LPTH nice area here in 9s and 8s possible still too but - did sweep PDL - short term oversold

$LPTH In my reading, this change should not be viewed as negative news. In fact, it could be distinctly positive for LPTH. Existing contracts should remain largely unaffected, while the strategic value of U.S.-based manufacturing and BlackDiamond™ materials is likely to increase. More interceptor designs and more prime contractors could create additional opportunities for LPTH’s seekers, infrared cameras, and optical subsystems.

$LPTH It is interesting that several of LPTH’s largest potential programs, including NGSRI, the BlackDiamond-based G5 redesign and certain border-security opportunities, are progressing more slowly than originally expected. Despite this, existing production orders and numerous smaller programs helped nearly double annual revenue from $37.2 million to $71.7 million. This suggests that the current growth is not yet dependent on any single transformational program. If even one of the delayed major opportunities enters serial production, it could add another substantial layer of growth.

$LPTH Seems like LightPath added more jobs. I saw about 17 last week, and they’re at 25 this week. Just something to note.

$LPTH Jason Liebert, who was the General Manager of Visimid when LPTH acquired them in 2023, was just promoted to CTO of Special Projects for LPTH. His new role will focus on “developing new technologies and supporting new military and defense programs”. Liebert and his team at Visimid developed the cutting edge seeker technology used in Lockheed’s Quadstar NGSRI missile, the Mantis multispectral camera and many other sensor and IR camera technologies . He is one of LPTH’s greatest assets. Giving Liebert a broader role signals that LPTH has a lot of opportunities on their plate in the defense space.

$LPTH nice action off sweep of march and july lows while still above Feb low of 8.72 . Could go lower to 8s but short term pretty oversold also ST. LT chart is a mixed bag for now

$LPTH I think the market is underestimating the importance of LPTH’s customer diversity into the neoprime missile manufacturers. As Sam said recently, the neoprimes (he specifically mentioned Anduril) like to move fast. The neoprimes as a whole have been able to go from initial contract to production stage 2-4x faster than the legacy primes and once ramped have a much higher volume potential. Example: framework agreements were signed with Anduril in June for their Barracuda cruise missile and 500 units are scheduled to be delivered in H1/27, just 1 year later. The barracuda costs 30% less, requires far less tooling and man hours and has 50% fewer parts. The neoprimes prioritize manufacturing capability over high end, exquisite designs. If you look at warfare historically, the side with the most weapon capacity usually trumps the side with the best technology. I think the neoprimes will pose a threat to the legacy primes going forward so it’s good to see LPTH straddling the fence.

$LPTH Once their germanium free prototype is selected for production there will be no competition for those lenses. They will be the requisite lenses for applicable systems going forward. This should create another significant moat for LPTH…bigger than the one they already have.

$LPTH Sam is rattling off a ton business revenue drivers. This has a chance to hit $11.88 tomorrow. Mark this post.

$LPTH LightPath reports Q4 EPS (6c), consensus 1c Reports Q4 revenue $21.16M, consensus $20.61M. Sam Rubin, president and CEO of LightPath, said: "Fiscal 2026 was a year of transition, rewarding the foundation we've spent years building. As companies continue to onshore their supply chains, and customers increasingly seek to shift away from the China-controlled Germanium market, we believe that we are extremely well positioned to continue our pace of operational execution into fiscal 2027 and beyond."

$LPTH there will be a lot of reinvesting to scale up, but once the correct production volume is reached. Then the positive cash flow will start to flow and the rerating will be massive. All that with low risk because the company has massive backorders and no debt.

$LPTH Fantastic news. Very surprised we are only up 60 cents in conjunction with a soaring nasdaq. As if no reaction to this extremely positive news.

$LPTH If you can't see where this is headed you're dumb. Also if you bought into the NGSRI fear you're dumb. Do your DD, then ask yourself if LPTH deserves to still be 16% below the 200 day MA?

$LPTH LightPath options imply 8.3% move in share price post-earnings Pre-earnings options volume in LightPath is normal with calls leading puts 7:4. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 8.3%, or 83c, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 14.9%.

$LPTH moving earnings dates forward is a ~75% bullish signal. an early call without a bad pre-announcement usually signals management has the receipts to fight back

$LPTH I think the potential upside is enormous while the downside risk is minimal. I'm willing to ride the volatility and wait for the upside to suddenly arrive some day.